Trade deficit is still within control: economists

“Unlike two years ago, many analysts have warned that Vietnam will m witness a trade deficit. However, I believe the trade deficit will still be within control,’ said Vo Tri Thanh, a respected economist.

trade deficit is still within control: economists hinh 0
The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) has reported that the export turnover hit $21.5 billion in May, an increase of 5.2 percent over the month before, of which domestic economic sector made up $6.71 billion, up by 3.9 percent, while foreign invested economic sector, including crude oil, made up $14.79 billion, up by 5.8 percent.

If compared with the same period last year, the export turnover last May increased by 7.5 percent, of which 10.7 percent was from the domestic economic sector and 6.1 percent was from foreign invested enterprises.

As such, the first five months of the year, Vietnam exported $100.74 billion worth of products, increasing by 6.7 percent over the same period last year.

Regarding the imports, the turnover in May was $22.8 billion, an increase of 8.6 percent over the month before and 8.3 percent over the same period last year.

In the first five months, the import turnover was $101.28 billion, up by 10.3 percent over the first five months of 2018.

As such, Vietnam saw the trade deficit of $1.3 billion in May and $548 million in the first five months.

Unlike previously, when the excess of imports over exports always raised big worries, economists now are calm amid the trade deficit.

Thanh commented that the 6.7 percent export growth rate in the first five months of the year was ‘relatively low’ compared with the previous years, but the figure was ‘very encouraging’ compared with other regional countries.

Many economies even saw the minus export growth rates in the first three months of the year, including Japan, Indonesia, Taiwan (China) and Singapore, while China’s export turnover increased very slightly by 1.4 percent.

“The figures show that the decline in the global economic growth also bears the impact from special phenomena, including the US-China trade war,” Thanh said.

“I think the trade deficit is still within control,” he said, pointing out that the situation is not worrying.

In its report released lately, Rong Viet Securities also showed an optimistic view about Vietnam’s trade balance, especially from the third quarter of 2019.

Its researchers believe that Vietnam will export more in the upcoming months, while the imports will decrease because of the seasonal reasons and the state’s control.

The exports of farm produce and electronics, which make up 40 percent of total export turnover, may see better growth. Farm produce and fruit exports to China have bounced back, reaching $450 milion in April.


Related news