Growth is projected at 7.2% in 2026 and 7.0% in 2027, following an estimated 8.0% expansion in 2025, the bank said at a press briefing in Hanoi.

In his opening remarks, ADB Country Director for Vietnam Shantanu Chakraborty emphasised that 2025 was a strong year for Vietnam. Despite a challenging global environment, the economy expanded by 8.0%, matching the post-pandemic high recorded in 2022. Growth was supported by expansionary policies, strong export performance ahead of the United States reciprocal tariff adjustments, and robust public investment. As a result, Vietnam emerged as the fastest-growing economy in Southeast Asia.

However, he noted, the external environment is expected to become more challenging. Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in the Middle East, uncertainty over U.S. trade policy, and slower growth among major trading partners could weigh on exports, investment and production costs.

“Under an early stabilisation scenario, Vietnam’s growth is projected to remain resilient, at 7.2% in 2026 and 7.0% in 2027, supported by an increased public investment and accommodative monetary policy,” Chakraborty said.

Inflation is forecast to rise to 4.0% in 2026 before easing to 3.8% in 2027, although the outlook is subject to significant uncertainty amid rapidly evolving global conditions, he added.

The Asian Development Outlook April 2026, ADB’s flagship annual economic publication, maintains a positive outlook for Vietnam over the near term. Strong exports ahead of the United States reciprocal tariff adjustments, expansionary policies, and sustained investment supported the country’s solid economic growth last year. However, evolving US trade measures, the conflict in the Middle East, and broader global uncertainties may put pressure on exports and investment inflows in the period ahead.

“The Government of Vietnam responded swiftly to the energy supply disruptions triggered by the conflict in the Middle East,” said Chakraborty. “Time-bound fiscal measures, including tax relief, use of the stabilisation fund, combined with flexible price adjustments and stronger supply coordination, have helped contain near-term inflationary pressures and support growth. Over the longer term, improving efficiency, diversifying energy sources, and accelerating the transition to clean energy will be critical to reducing vulnerability to future shocks.”

Downside risks are significant. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could disrupt flows of oil, gas and fertilisers through the Strait of Hormuz, raising shipping costs and causing delays. Together with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, these developments are intensifying commodity price volatility and further straining global supply chains. Weaker growth in key trading partners could also narrow Vietnam’s trade surplus and dampen growth.

From a policy perspective, strengthening the corporate bond market will be essential to mobilise long-term financing beyond bank credit and support sustained investment. Enhancing transparency, ensuring consistent regulations, and broadening market participation will be key to improving investor confidence and enhancing market efficiency. If implemented effectively, ongoing reforms in this area could help position the corporate bond market as a stable source of long-term finance for sustainable and inclusive growth.

ADB raises Vietnam’s 2025 growth forecast to 7.4%

VOV.VN - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has upgraded its 2025 growth forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific, with Vietnam receiving the region’s largest upward revision to 7.4% from 6.7%, according to its December 2025 Asian Development Outlook (ADO).