ADB raised growth projections for its member economies amid stronger-than-expected exports and reduced trade uncertainty following the conclusion of several trade agreements with the United States.

The report noted that resilient exports, particularly of semiconductors and other technology products, moderating inflation, and stable financial conditions have strengthened the region’s growth outlook. Buoyed by stronger-than-expected growth in India, the region’s economy is now projected to expand by 5.1% this year, compared with a 4.8% forecast in September. The outlook for 2026 has also been upgraded by 0.1 percentage points to 4.6%.

“Asia and the Pacific’s solid economic fundamentals are underpinning robust export performance and steady growth, despite a global trade environment clouded by historic levels of uncertainty over the past year,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park.

“Trade agreements have partly eased that uncertainty, but external and other challenges could still weigh on the outlook. Governments in the region should continue to foster open trade and investment to sustain resilience and growth,” he added.

Risks to the regional outlook include renewed trade tensions and financial market volatility, as well as geopolitical pressures and a worse-than-expected deterioration in China’s property market.

China’s growth forecast for 2025 has been raised to 4.8% from 4.7%, amid resilient exports and continued fiscal stimulus. The outlook for 2026 remains unchanged at 4.3%. India’s 2025 growth projection is up by 0.7 percentage points to 7.2%, reflecting stronger third-quarter expansion as tax cuts supported consumption. The 2026 forecast stays at 6.5%.

Meanwhile, the outlook for the Caucasus and Central Asia subregion has been revised up to 5.8% this year from a previous forecast of 5.5%, buoyed by strong public investment, rising remittances, and robust domestic demand. Southeast Asia’s growth projection for 2025 has been upgraded by 0.2 percentage points to 4.5%, reflecting a strong third quarter in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. Forecasts for the Pacific remain unchanged for this year and next, at 4.1% and 3.4%, respectively.

Inflation in developing Asia and the Pacific is expected to ease further to 1.6% this year, compared with a 1.7% projection in September, mainly due to lower-than-anticipated food inflation in India. The region’s inflation forecast for 2026 remains at 2.1%.

ADB maintains positive outlook for Vietnamese economy in 2025

VOV.VN - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained a positive outlook for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2025, by raising its growth forecast for the economy to 6.6%, up from the 6.2% forecast made in September.