Vietnamese Tra fish exports: Could the US overtake China?

According to details given by Vietnam Customs, the fourth quarter of 2024 witnessed Vietnamese tra fish (pangasius) exports to China and Hong Kong (China) reach a total of US$163 million, a 17% increase compared to the same period from 2023, with consistent growth across all months. Cumulatively, exports to this market in 2024 reached US$581 million, a 1% increase from 2023.

The past decade has seen China surpass the US for the first time, becoming the largest buyer of Vietnamese tra fish in 2017. However, in 2018, the US regained its position, with exports to the highly lucrative market standing at US$550 million, while exports to China reached only US$529 million.

Since 2019, tra fish exports to the US market have struggled to record significant growth due to ongoing anti-dumping duties. In contrast, over the past six years, China has remained the leading importer of Vietnamese tra fish.

In 2024, tra fish exports to the Chinese market accounted for 29% of total Vietnamese seafood exports. In line with this, October, 2024, witnessed the highest monthly export value of Vietnamese tra fish to China and Hong Kong (China) since the beginning of the year, exceeding US$61 million, a 9% increase on-year.

Frozen tra fish fillets from Vietnam are highly popular among Chinese consumers. In Q4 of 2024, exports of these products to the northern neighbour fetched over US$100 million, a 62% increase from the corresponding period in 2023. For the year, exports of frozen fillets to China and Hong Kong (China) amounted to US$349 million, a drop of 6% compared to the previous year, representing 60% of total exports to this market.

During the reviewed period, China also moved to increase the import of dried fish and other frozen products such as whole fish, cut pieces, and fish maws, which surged by 7% from 2023. Exports of value-added tra fish enjoyed an impressive growth rate of 92% in Q4 of 2024 on-year.

The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) has stated that the US and China remain the leading markets for Vietnamese tra fish. Moving into 2025, will China’s position as the leading market be challenged, especially after Vietnam and the US signed a bilateral agreement to remove anti-dumping duties placed on Vietnamese frozen fish fillets?

Additionally, the US complying with the World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling opens up significant opportunities for more stable exports of Vietnamese tra fish to this market moving forward.

This move is also viewed as a key step in enhancing the relationship between the two, particularly as both sides have recently upgraded their ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

According to the VASEP, in 2024, tra fish exports hit US$2 billion, a 9% increase compared to 2023. Despite two years of challenges in both export markets and domestic production, the Vietnamese tra fish industry has overcome these obstacles, adapted effectively, and is poised to seize upon new opportunities for growth in multiple markets.