Amid profound changes in global supply chains and trade structures, recent international studies indicate that Asian economies are increasingly emerging as new engines of global growth. Among them, Vietnam has attracted growing attention thanks to its rapid development, deep economic integration, and significant transformation of its production structure.

New projections from the Harvard Growth Lab at Harvard University suggest that Vietnam could become one of the world’s leading economies in terms of per capita GDP growth over the coming decade. According to the study, economies with more diversified and sophisticated production capabilities are expected to play a key role in driving global economic growth in the next phase. In this context, Vietnam and China stand out as countries whose economic complexity is significantly higher than their current income levels.

This measure is captured by the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), which reflects the diversity and technological sophistication of a country’s export products. Economies with higher ECI scores tend to have greater capacity to expand into more complex industries and generate higher value-added activities.

According to Ricardo Hausmann, director of the Harvard Growth Lab, countries capable of expanding into more sophisticated industries will gain a significant advantage in global competition. He noted that amid rising trade tensions and ongoing shifts in global supply chains, advanced manufacturing capacity and deeper participation in international industrial networks are becoming key determinants of long-term economic growth.

Recent manufacturing indicators also highlight Vietnam’s positive growth momentum. Data from S&P Global show that the country’s Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing reached 54.3 in February, marking the eighth consecutive month of improved business conditions. The report indicates that both factory output and new orders increased, reflecting stable demand from both domestic and international markets.

Alongside the manufacturing sector, Vietnam’s financial market has also expanded significantly in recent years. According to FTSE Russell, the market capitalisation of the FTSE Frontier Vietnam Index rose from approximately US$11 billion in 2015 to about US$59 billion in 2025. Vietnam is also expected to be upgraded to secondary emerging market status in 2026, which could attract additional international investment flows from major global funds.

These positive trends are taking place as Vietnam continues to promote growth model transformation, accelerate industrialisation, and enhance science and technology capacity in line with development orientations outlined at the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam.

Ben Blissett, an economic analyst and commentator, noted that over the past years the Communist Party of Vietnam has introduced reforms aimed at improving the business environment and increasing the country’s attractiveness to international investors. According to assessments by the Economist Intelligence Unit, Vietnam’s business environment has improved faster than that of any other country monitored by the organisation.

For several decades, Vietnam has pursued a policy of economic openness and international integration. The country joined the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 1995, signed the Bilateral Trade Agreement with the United States in 2000, and became a member of the World Trade Organisation in 2007. These milestones have helped accelerate trade liberalisation and attract foreign direct investment, making Vietnam one of the most open economies in the region.

In addition, Vietnam benefits from a young workforce with a median age of around 33. The country’s education performance has been positively evaluated in international assessments such as the Programme for International Student Assessment, with results close to the average level of countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). A well-trained workforce is widely regarded as a key factor enabling the economy to move gradually toward higher value-added segments in global production chains.

Amid ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, experts believe that Vietnam’s adaptability and continued institutional reforms will remain crucial factors in sustaining the country’s long-term growth momentum.

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