In its latest outlook, Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) forecast Vietnam’s gross domestic product growth could reach 8.2% in 2026, citing stronger-than-expected exports and solid domestic economic fundamentals. MUFG highlighted the key role of domestic demand and ongoing structural reforms, noting that increased public investment and efforts to strengthen private-sector confidence are providing important momentum for consumption, production and overall market sentiment.

HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad echoed the positive assessment, saying Vietnam’s growth continues to shine despite volatility in the global trading environment, positioning the country among the fastest-growing economies in ASEAN. HSBC said Vietnam’s performance is no longer driven solely by its well-established export engine, but increasingly supported by domestic reforms. The bank also pointed to Vietnam’s trade resilience, with both exports and imports maintaining growth even as global trade conditions fluctuate.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) also highlighted Vietnam’s strong trade and investment dynamics. Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB’s country director for Vietnam, said exports rose 16.1% year on year by the end of November last year, while imports increased 18.4%, underscoring robust external demand.

He added that Vietnam continues to attract strong foreign direct investment, alongside a pickup in domestic investment driven by expansionary fiscal policies for public investment and a recovery in the real estate sector. Growth in services, particularly tourism, has also accelerated following visa facilitation policies and major national events, he said.

From an institutional perspective, international observers say Vietnam’s resilience is further reinforced by improvements in its business and governance environment. Legal and policy analysis platform Lexology noted that Vietnam has improved its rankings in several global indices related to innovation, e-government effectiveness and overall well-being. Large-scale restructuring of the state apparatus, combined with reforms in corporate governance, is seen as having long-term implications for administrative capacity and economic efficiency.

Álvaro Pereira, chief economist of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), described Vietnam as one of the most impressive growth stories globally. He said the country has consistently doubled its per capita income roughly every decade, attributing the performance to sound macroeconomic management, effective government policies and strong societal dynamism.

Analysts also point to Vietnam’s recent wave of policy initiatives as a key driver of investor confidence. The government has eliminated or simplified around 4,300 business regulations, signalling a strong commitment to creating a more transparent and investment-friendly environment. Its “three-together” approach with the business community (listening, understanding and sharing aspirations), alongside joint efforts to grow and succeed, is increasingly viewed as a foundation for accelerating administrative reform, decentralising decision-making and advancing sustainable growth, green transition and digital transformation.

Vietnam’s GDP expands 8.02% in 2025, second highest rate in 15 years

VOV.VN - Vietnam’s economy grew 8.02% in 2025, marking the second-highest annual growth rate since 2011, driven primarily by strong performance in the services sector and industrial production, according to official data released on January 5.