According to Vietnam Customs data, the country exported 224,348 tonnes of coffee in January, generating US$1.08 billion in revenue. Export volume rose 56.4% year on year, while export value increased 39.5% compared with the same period in 2025.

Coffee overtook seafood to become Vietnam’s second-largest agricultural export in January, behind wood and wood products which brought in US$1.6 billion.

The strong performance comes after a record year in 2025, when Vietnam exported nearly 1.6 million tonnes of coffee worth US$8.92 billion, up 58.8% from the previous year.

However, global market dynamics may temper the outlook. Several international institutions forecast that the global coffee market will shift from deficit toward rebalancing in the 2025-2026 crop year. The World Bank projects global output to rise to 179 million bags, up from 175.4 million bags in 2024-2025.

Arabica prices are expected to decline by around 13% in 2026 and a further 5% in 2027 as production recovers, particularly in Colombia. Robusta prices are also forecast to ease, though at a slower pace, with declines of roughly 2% per year.

Vietnam’s coffee-growing area currently spans about 710,000 hectares, concentrated mainly in Dak Lak, Lam Dong and Gia Lai provinces, which account for more than 92% of total acreage and roughly 95% of output. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association estimates that production in the 2025–2026 crop year will rise about 10% from the previous season.

The World Bank projects global coffee output will increase from 175.4 million bags in the 2024–2025 crop to 179 million bags in the 2025–2026 crop.

Industry experts say the sustainability of export growth will depend not only on price movements but also on Vietnam’s ability to expand value-added processing, strengthen traceability and meet increasingly stringent global supply chain requirements.

Phan Minh Thong, CEO of Phuc Sinh Group, said coffee can continue to serve as a sustainable export pillar, provided businesses shift from raw bean exports to higher value-added processing and longstanding policy bottlenecks are resolved.

Vietnamese coffee chain expands to India with six stores

VOV.VN - Vietnamese coffee brand Three O'Clock has officially entered the Indian market through an international franchising partnership, launching three stores simultaneously on November 8 in the city of Gurugram.