Who will be the next US president?

This is viewed by some as the most dramatic in the history of US politics because the two candidates, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, are opposite in their policies. Both are beset by personal scandals.

Candidates with conflicting policies

The gap between the two candidates has narrowed as voting day nears. During her campaign, Clinton, a former Secretary of State, has consistently supported the policies of Barack Obama’s administration, including tightening gun control, extending healthcare to all Americans (Obamacare), protecting Muslim migrants through reform of immigration law, a path to citizenship for some undocumented residents, and opposing the mass deportation of all illegal migrants.

An experienced diplomat, Clinton intends to boost relations with long-time allies and establish new ties, which she said is the best way to protect the US’s long-term interests and enhance its stature globally.

Billionaire Donald Trump is known for is shocking statements like asking US allies to pay for the US’s protection of their security, threatening to repatriate illegal immigrants and build a high wall along the border with Mexico. Trump gives top priority to economic development to make the US stronger. He advocates trade protection, opposes free trade, and plans to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), and roll back most of Obama’s executive orders, and cut the corporate tax rate to 15%.

Bids to win electoral votes

More than 40 million Americans have already cast early votes and public polling show no significant preference for either candidate. All eyes are on election activities in a handful of undecided states like Florida, Maine, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Nevada. The final pre-election poll by Reuters/Ipsos on November 7 showed Clinton leading Trump by 3% and on pace to win 303 electoral votes. Trump is projected to win 235 electoral votes, short of the 270 votes needed for victory.  Trump needs to win in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. If he loses 2 out of the 3 states of Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Hillary will win. In any scenario, Trump needs to win in the usually reliable Republican stronghold of Arizona, where both candidates are now in a tight race.

North Carolina, usually one of the earliest states to announce election results, will serve as an important indicator of the overall election result. Early voting in North Carolina shows Trump slightly leads Clinton, 47% to 46%.

The two candidates have almost equal chances of winning the US Presidency on November 8.