Narrow path to peace in Syria

The upcoming Geneva conference will try to find a solution to the bloody conflict in Syria, which has gone on for more than two years. The aim of the conference is to bring together Syrian government and opposition representatives to negotiate a best-possible solution to minimize civilian casualties. Shuttle diplomacy has been conducted to facilitate dialogue and end bloodshed and violence in any form.

However, a positive outcome is not expected while the Syrian government and opposition refuse to compromise. The major world powers have not found a common approach to the Syria issue either.

A conference with similar intention took place in Geneva last year. Strong statements by participating countries showed a determination to end the violence in Syria, but little was achieved. These countries supported the establishment of a transitional government but no specific agreement was reached and one year later the political crisis in Syria remains unresolved and even worse than before.

Although Russia and the US will both attend this year’s conference, they disagree on a number of issues. Washington has criticized Moscow for supplying missiles to the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Russia, meanwhile, insists that Iran, President Assad’s main ally, must attend this conference. France, however, refuses to participate in the conference if Tehran participates.

Russia, China and a few other countries are resolute about preventing foreign intervention in Syria. Russia has criticized a US-backed draft resolution denouncing the Syrian government prior to a discussion at the UN Human Rights Council, saying that the document will hamper efforts to end the civil war in Syria.

Although the Syrian opposition has agreed to attend the conference under US pressure, it says that any initiative must lead to President Assad’s resignation. However, President Assad insists on staying in power until an election is held and says no country has the right to interfere in Syria’s political matters.

His consistent stance has the backing of Hezbollah, which has been listed as a terrorist group by the US. Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah says Hezbollah will use all its resources to save President Assad’s regime. 3,000-4,000 Islamic Shi’ite gunmen from Lebanon are now fighting along with government forces in Syria.

In a bold move, by endorsing a resolution on Wednesday to lift an arms embargo against the Syrian opposition, the EU sent a message to President Assad that he has no choice but to step down. Peace will only be achieved when there is international and internal consensus, but that seems very remote at this point.