Iran nuclear deal: not viable

This will be the first high level round of talks between the P5+1 and Iran since a preliminary nuclear deal was reached last November. The talks will be chaired by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Katherine Ashton.

Pessimism overshadows talks

Prior to the talks, parties concerned doubted the possibility of a positive outcome that would ease international concerns about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons, which Tehran has denied. A senior US government official has admitted that it will not be easy to find a long-term deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program, which has been controversial for decades.

Iranian officials are not optimistic about this round of negotiations either. Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei predicted that the talks would lead nowhere. He also said that Iran’s nuclear program is only an excuse for Washington and that Washington will not end its hostility toward Iran.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Mahammad Javad Zarif said the biggest challenge is the lack of trust.

Analysts say there is only a 10% chance that a long-term comprehensive deal will be signed. Observers even suggest that a temporary agreement will be the most viable solution the West can achieve while trying to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue.

Conflicting viewpoints – decisive factor in negotiations

Differences between Iran and Western countries plus opposition objection are frequent threats that can break out anytime during the negotiation process.

According to Iran’s nuclear negotiator Hamid Baeedinejad, the nuclear talks will focus on advanced centrifuges and the Arak heavy water nuclear reactor which is currently under construction. The West fears that with this reactor Iran could extract plutonium to produce atomic bombs. Baeedinejad said Iran would definitely not replace its present centrifuges with more modern ones.

Iranian officials warned last week that they would not make any concession on a number of thorny issues. Another Iranian nuclear negotiator Majid Takhte Ravanchi said Iran will not accept the closure of any of its nuclear facilities.

Western countries appear to be insistent that Iran dismantle the most dangerous parts of its nuclear program.

Upon his arrival in Vienna to prepare for the talks, Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif called on all sides to show their political determination to make the talks a success. He said that last November’s preliminary deal was a positive step and must be implemented. He added, however, that there are some points that need to be clarified during negotiations.

Conflicting viewpoints between Iran and the West will obviously have a negative impact on the talks. If neither side agrees to change their approach and make concessions, a long-term comprehensive nuclear deal will remain a long way off.