Instability in East Asia in 2013

A new generation of leaders brought new hope to North East Asia in 2013. But a war of words and territorial disputes in the East China Sea continued between China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea.

Increased instability

Diplomatic tensions between the Republic of Korea and Japan increased following an August visit to the disputed Dokko islands, also known as Takeshima in Japanese by former Korean President Lee Myung-bak.

The arrival of Chinese activists on the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, 3 of which are claimed by Japan, brought China-Japan relations to the red line.

China frequently sent its aircraft and vessels to Japanese-controlled airspace and maritime areas, prompting a war of words between the two countries’ diplomats and officials.

Disputes in the East China Sea became increasingly militarized during the last months of 2013. Confrontations between Japanese sea patrol vessels and Chinese fishing ships were frequent.

In response, fishing ships from mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan were headed to the Senkaku-Diaoyu islands, where the Japanese coast guards stood ready for combat 24 hours a day.

Relations between China and Japan worsened, especially after Japan approved a plan to shoot down any drone that ignores warnings to leave Tokyo’s airspace and China’s establishment of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea.

China’s controversial ADIZ covers not only the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands but also the Ieodo/Suyan submerged rock and part of the Republic of Korea’s airspace over Jeju island. These 3 countries and maritime disputes are expected to continue.

Arms race

Escalating tensions have led to increased military capability and defense expenditures. In December, Japan approved a new defense strategy under which Tokyo will reserve approximately US$240 billion for defense spending between 2014 and 2019.

The money will be used to buy new weapons and establish a naval landing force, able to combat, monitor and respond to any contingency. This is Japan’s 3rd defense budget increase in 11 years.

Territorial disputes in the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan have been common in the past but recent disputes have been over mineral sources. Sovereignty disputes in North East Asia stem from the strategic importance of the islands and calculations of national status and maintaining a balance of power in this region.

Trend of peace, cooperation prevalent

While maritime disputes in North East Asia have seemed out of control in recent years, the region entered the New Year peacefully. Although this peace is fragile, a trend of dialogue, cooperation, and development seems to prevail.

Beijing, Tokyo, and Seoul are all aware that disputes can’t be solved overnight given the many challenges. They also know that any miscalculation would threaten their security and harm the development of the entire Asia-Pacific region.

Settling the disputes any time soon seems unlikely and 2014 is predicted to be another difficult year for this region.