Egypt’s crisis and its consequences

Demonstrations in support of the army or of ousted President Mohamed Morsi have erupted across Egypt and hundreds of people have been killed or injured in clashes between police and Morsi supporters.

While factions blamed one another for the violent incidents, Interim President Adly Mansour gave the army the right to arrest civilians. It is feared that this move to quell protests might begin a large-scale operation to suppress Morsi’s supporters who include insurgent fighters targeting Egyptian security forces in the Sinai Peninsula.

Government efforts to crack down on threats to social order and security were overwhelmed when the Muslim Brotherhood launched a million-man demonstration on July 29. Some of this organization’s leaders said their campaign has no limit and can continue for years until their goal is achieved, which is to restore the Constitution and reinstate president Morsi.

While Egypt struggles to find a resolution, its neighbors have expressed grave concern about the situation there. A political analyst at the American University in Cairo, Noha Bakr, said security operations currently deployed in the Sinai Peninsula will certainly affect Hamas’ position in the region.

This is because the army can isolate the Gaza Strip from the outside world by closing all tunnels and the Rafah border gate. Attacks by Islamic fighters in Sinai to pressure the army to reinstate President Morsi threaten Israel’s security.

Egypt’s instability is worrisome to gulf countries like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who have voiced support for the current regime in Egypt. A similar scenario could occur in Tunisia and Libya where the Muslim Brotherhood now rules.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon has held talks with Egyptian Vice President Mohamed ElBaradei, the Foreign Ministers of Turkey and Qatar, and the Secretary General of the Arab League to voice his concern about the crisis.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Katherine Ashton on July 29 hosted a dialogue involving a number of Egyptian political factions - Military Commander Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Interim President Adli Mansour, and representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party.

Ashton called for restraint and end to the violence while pledging EU support to the Egyptian people to restore stability and promote democracy. Analysts, however, say mediation by the EU or any other party outside Egypt to resolve the current crisis has little chance of success. Analyst Hasan Nafah of Cairo University says Egyptians must settle the crisis themselves.

Political division is deepening in Egypt and stability looks far out of reach.