A test for Yingluck Shinawatra

The public is concerned about a worsening scenario for the Thai government. The question is how moderate Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra can prevent a new spiral of instability and conflict.

The Thai government on November 26 began debate on a no-confidence vote with a hearing of 20 opposition senators. The no-confidence vote and an impeachment motion against Prime Minister Yingluck and her cabinet are aimed at toppling the government.

Social polarization in Thailand

The new political crisis in Thailand resulted from Yingluck’s attempt to pass an Amnesty Bill, an issue very sensitive to the opposition, who sees the bill as an effort by Yingluck to wipe off her brother former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s liabilities and bring him back to Thailand. Thaksin has been living in exile since 2008 to avoid a 2-year prison sentence on corruption charges. Although the controversial bill was rejected by the Senate, it has sparked social differences that are still smoldering.

Everything related to Thaksin is still a sensitive political issue in Thailand. He was the main cause of social polarization and political instability that has plagued Thailand for years. Thaksin was supported by millions of poor people because of his pro-poor policies but was opposed by the Royal Family, the army and the middle class.

Confrontations between pro- and anti-Thaksin factions have been going on for years. Although Yinluck has led Thailand through a peaceful period since her election two years ago, issues related to Thaksin have shaken her government from time to time.

Will there be a scenario similar to 2010?

The opposition Democrat Party has played an important role in the current anti-government protests, which have been peaceful, but clearly the public is concerned about the possibilities of more bloodshed like in 2010 when 90 Thaksin supporters were killed by the Democrat Party-led government.

Faced with increasing pressure, Prime Minister Yingluck has called on protestors to calm down and said that the government will not use force to deal with protests and is ready for dialogue with all factions to weather the current political instability. On the other hand, she has extended the Internal Security Act to suppress any attempt to sabotage the government and undermine national security.             

A test for the Prime Minister

Many analysts believe that if Yingluck fails to defuse the current situation, her government could fall. However, after the way she has ruled Thailand over the last 2 years, the public remains optimistic that Yingluck will be more successful than her predecessors.

Back in 2012, Yingluck easily survived a no-confidence vote in the House of Representatives, which was initiated by opposition senators who accused the government of failing to cope with corruption. Analysts believe in Yingluck’s ability to recover from the current crisis. Moreover, the ruling Thai Rak Thai Party holds a majority in the House of Representatives, which will hinder efforts to weaken Thailand’s first female Prime Minister.