Developing countries face tough transition in 2015

As a result, developing countries are now projected to grow by 4.4 percent this year, with a likely rise to 5.2 percent in 2016, and 5.4 percent in 2017.  

“Developing countries were an engine of global growth following the financial crisis, but now they face a more difficult economic environment,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. 

“We’ll do all we can to help low- and middle-income countries become more resilient so that they can manage this transition as securely as possible. We believe that countries that invest in people’s education and health, improve the business environment, and create jobs through upgrades in infrastructure will emerge much stronger in the years ahead. These kinds of investments will help hundreds of millions of people lift themselves out of poverty,” he added.

With an expected liftoff in US interest rates, borrowing will become more expensive for emerging and developing economies over the coming months. This process is expected to unfold relatively smoothly since the US economic recovery is continuing and interest rates remain low in other major global economies.

 “Slowly but surely the ground beneath the global economy is shifting. China has avoided the potholes skillfully for now and is easing to a growth rate of 7.1 percent; Brazil, with its corruption scandal making news, has been less lucky, dipping into negative growth. With an expected growth of 7.5 percent this year, India is, for the first time, leading the World Bank’s growth chart of major economies. The main shadow over this moving landscape is of the eventual U.S. liftoff,” said Kaushik Basu, World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice President. 

 “Unless emerging markets have taken the prudent policy steps to be fiscally and externally resilient, they may face significant challenges dealing with the turbulence and other fallout that could be associated with a Fed tightening,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Director of Development Prospects.

A special analysis in the report finds that low-income countries, many of which depend on commodity exports and investment, are vulnerable in the current environment. During the commodity price boom of the mid-2000s, their economies strengthened considerably with new discoveries of key metals and minerals, resource investment, and expanding commodity exports. The prospect, therefore, of persistently low commodity prices may persuade policy makers to steer their resources away from metals and minerals and into other national economic priorities that will drive growth instead. This puts a premium on policies to build buffers that can ease the transition and reforms that support growth in the non-resource sector.

In high-income countries, in contrast, recovery is gaining momentum, as growth in the Euro Area and Japan picks up and the United States continues to expand, despite a weak start to the year. High-income countries are on course to grow by 2.0 percent this year, 2.4 percent in 2016 and 2.2 percent in 2017. The global economy is likely to expand by 2.8 percent this year, 3.3 percent in 2016 and 3.2 percent in 2017.

Risks to the outlook for emerging and developing economies continue to weigh on growth. As some risks, such as the possibility of persistent stagnation in the Euro Area and Japan, have receded, new ones have emerged. Coinciding with the expected rise in US interest rates, positive credit ratings for emerging markets are fading, especially in oil exporting countries, risks of financial market volatility are increasing, and capital flows are declining. An excessive appreciation of the US dollar could curtail the recovery in the world’s largest economy, with adverse side-effects for US trading partners around the world.