Total fertility rate on the downward trajectory

According to the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 report, women today have on average, one child fewer than in 1990. The current global fertility rate stands at 2.3 children per woman, down from 3.3 children per woman in 1990. More than half of countries and regions worldwide have a total fertility rate (TFR) below replacement level.

The 2024 Mid-term Population and Housing Survey in Vietnam revealed that the country’s total fertility rate is 1.91 children per woman, the lowest figure ever recorded. Over nearly 15 years, from 2009 to 2022, Vietnam’s fertility rate remained relatively stable at replacement level. However, over the past two years, from 2023 to 2024, the fertility rate has started to decline more rapidly.

Statistics show that Vietnam’s total fertility rate was 1.96 children per woman in 2023 before further decreasing to 1.91 in the following year. The rate in urban areas was 1.67 children per woman, lower than in rural areas at 2.08 children per woman.

Based on the experience of many countries around the world, including those in Europe, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and China, once the fertility rate declines, it rarely returns to previous levels.

Nguyen Thi Thanh Mai, an official of the General Statistics Office, stated that Vietnam is still in the period of a “golden population structure”, with two people of working age for every dependent person. The proportion of the population aged 15 to 64 accounts for 67.4%, the population under 15 years old makes up 23.3%, and the population aged 65 and over represents 9.3%.

In 2024, Vietnam’s elderly population aged 60 and above reached 14.2 million, an increase of 2.8 million compared to 2019 and 4.7 million compared to 2014. It is projected that by 2030, this number will rise to approximately 18 million, an increase of nearly four million from 2024. This rapid aging is primarily driven by rising life expectancy coupled with declining birth rates.

“If we do not introduce timely policies, the fertility rate will continue to decline in the coming years. Therefore, it is necessary to study and implement fertility promotion policies that align with Vietnam’s economic and cultural conditions to prevent a steep decline as the economy grows,” said Mai.

She added that while population decline represents a serious concern, population aging also reflects improvements occurring in economic conditions, health, and social welfare. Advances in health care have contributed to reducing mortality risks and increased life expectancy. Thus, aside from maintaining a stable fertility rate to prevent it from dropping too quickly, trying to stop population aging entirely is unrealistic. Instead, the focus should be on both adapting to and managing its various impacts.

Experts say that Vietnam is undergoing population aging at one of the fastest rates globally. While developed countries took several decades or even centuries to transition from an aging society to an aged one, the nation is expected to make this transition in just 26 years. It will be classified as an “aging nation” 2036 and a “super-aged” society by 2049.

If the fertility rate continues to decline at the current pace without intervention, then the local population will experience negative growth between 2054 and 2059, with an increasingly rapid decline afterward.

Scholars anticipate that the declining birth rate will reduce the working-age population, causing future labour shortages, lower labour productivity, and placing significant pressure on social welfare systems, particularly healthcare and pensions. This therefore poses a serious threat to the country’s economic development and growth.

Policies in need to address rapid population aging

According to experts, the rising cost of raising and educating children is a key reason why many young couples choose to have fewer or no children. This is especially true in large cities, where living expenses, education, and healthcare costs are high, reducing families’ financial capacity. Many young families tend to opt for fewer children in order to focus on their careers and improve their quality of life.

To address this situation, one important solution is to strengthen communication and education regarding the benefits of having and raising children. Media campaigns should therefore focus on changing public perceptions about family and the role of children in life.

Dr. Hoang Tu Anh, director of the Center for Creative Initiatives in Health and Population (CCIHP), noted that Vietnam is among the countries with the fastest aging population globally. Recently, the Ministry of Health proposed that Party members not be disciplined for having three or more children. This is an appropriate policy given the current context. Lifting restrictions on the number of children aligns with modern realities, with the decision on family size being the reproductive right of each couple. At a macro level, the Government must ensure that policies support families' rights and desires while contributing to the cause of national development.

Dr Anh pointed out that there are many reasons that make young couples reluctant to have children. The Government therefore needs to introduce incentives to encourage them to want to have children, rather than merely asking them to do so, which would not be effective.

“Young couples’ concerns are diverse, depending on family circumstances, financial conditions, living environment, family traditions, and personal values. Therefore, for policies to be effective and relevant, the government must first conduct research to understand their needs and concerns, then develop policies accordingly,” she suggested.

To achieve this goal, she said, multi-sector cooperation is essential. A practical example is industrial zones, which house a large number of young workers and couples who face challenges in raising children. Many couples either avoid having children or send their children back to their hometowns to be taken care of by grandparents because these industrial zones often lack childcare centers. Private childcare services, on the other hand, are expensive or fail to meet quality standards.

“Thus, the government should regulate the planning of industrial zones, making it mandatory to include childcare centers, schools, and healthcare facilities. Companies hiring workers should also be required to provide these services for employees. Besides, the government should implement policies to encourage businesses to meet these criteria. At the same time, it is essential to promote the idea that companies ensuring basic services for their workers will have a healthier, more stable, and sustainable workforce in the long run,” she suggested.

Vietnam responds to aging population’s challenges

Vietnam is working to improve its fertility rate as the country is facing the risks of an aging population as well as losing its “golden population” phase that affect the socio-economic development.