The imbalance is attributed to three key drivers: the ongoing disbursement and expansion of foreign direct investment (FDI); the city’s strengthening position as a regional centre for services, finance, trade and logistics; and socio-economic development strategies for the 2025–2030 period, all of which are sustaining strong demand for manpower.

Labour demand next year is forecast to exceed 313,000 positions, including around 136,340 in the former HCM City area, 105,080 in former Binh Duong, and 72,261 in former Ba Ria–Vung Tau.

Demand is expected to reflect the economic profile of each locality, signalling continued recovery and expansion in production and services. In the former HCM City area, recruitment will remain concentrated in office-based jobs, finance, information technology (IT), e-commerce, retail, food and beverage, tourism and customer service, underscoring the role of post-Tet domestic consumption recovery as a key growth driver.

Former Binh Duong, meanwhile, is set to remain a major magnet for unskilled labour and production line workers, as factories and industrial parks are expected to speed up order fulfilment from early 2026, boosting demand for production, technical and maintenance staff.

In former Ba Ria–Vung Tau, 2026 is forecast to mark a peak period for seaport, logistics, transport and port-related services. Rising activity at the Cai Mep–Thi Vai port complex, along with expanding logistics projects and international shipping routes, is expected to push demand towards skilled and highly qualified workers in warehousing, port logistics, maritime engineering and coastal tourism.

By occupation, unskilled labour is expected to account for the largest share at 39.82%, followed by processing and technical jobs at 23.23%, and trade, services and logistics at 8.99%. Highly skilled segments include finance, accounting and real estate (6.34%); administration, law and management (4.83%); IT and communications (1.89%); education and social services (2.64%); and healthcare (0.31%). Notably, high-quality services, logistics, e-commerce, finance and accounting, IT, and tourism–hospitality have maintained strong growth momentum since 2025 and are poised for further expansion in 2026.

On the supply side, only about 8.20% of workers have short-term vocational training, while those aged over 45 make up 20.41% of the workforce and often struggle to adapt to new skill requirements. A gender mismatch also persists, with labour supply skewed towards women while demand favours men. These factors continue to hinder improvements in the supply–demand balance, especially in sectors requiring hands-on skills, industrial discipline and shift work.

Online recruitment remains the dominant trend, particularly for office, service and technology-related positions.

In 2026, the city is also expected to face fiercer competition in attracting and retaining workers, especially in former Binh Duong, where post-Tet labour turnover remains high. At the same time, highly skilled workers in IT, data, advanced logistics and finance are becoming increasingly scarce and tend to gravitate towards areas offering more favourable working and living conditions.

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