Declining fertility rate predicted to lead to workforce shortage
A prolonged low birth rate is forecast to directly impact the size and structure of the population, leading to consequences such as labour shortages, rapid population aging, and population decline.
Vietnam's replacement fertility rate has dropped to its lowest level in the last 12 years and is projected to continue decreasing in the coming years, according to a report of the General Department of Population under the Ministry of Health (MoH).
Currently, 21 cities and provinces in Vietnam have reported low fertility rates, with some experiencing very low levels, concentrating in the southeast, Mekong Delta, and central coastal regions.
Localities with low fertility rates account for approximately 39.4% of the nation's population, significantly impacting the country's sustainable development process.
Vietnam is undergoing population aging and is among the fastest-aging countries in the world. It is projected to become an aging society by 2036 and a “super-aged” society by 2049. This demographic shift from a young to an aging society will have multidimensional impacts at the national, regional, and global levels.
Experts said that if the fertility rate continues to decline at the current pace without interventions, Vietnam's population will experience negative growth by 2054-2059 and will decrease at an accelerating rate.
Deputy Minister of Health Do Xuan Tuyen said population work is both an urgent and long-term strategic task, affirming that the focus of population policy is being shifted from family planning to population and development.
Vietnam needs to study and propose specific policies to address and curb the declining fertility trend to ensure the nation's replacement fertility rate is sustainably maintained, he said, noting that the perspectives and experiences of implementing policies to cope with low fertility rates in countries around the world serve as valuable practical lessons for Vietnam in shaping its own policies.
The MoH has proposed policies and solutions to sustainably maintain the nation's replacement fertility rate, Tuyen said, adding that adjusting solutions to align with reality is essential to prevent a situation where the fertility rate declines to a point where it cannot be reversed, as seen in some developed countries today.
