Will export targets be within reach this year?

Five-month export growth at 16%

According to data released by the General Department of Customs, as of mid-May Vietnamese exports had fetched US$14.64 billion, bringing the total export turnover from the beginning of the year to May 15 to US$138.59 billion, an increase 16% to US$19.17 billion on-year.

In the opposite direction, up to May 15, imported goods had reached US$17.26 billion, thereby elevating the total import turnover to US$132.23 billion, marking an increase of 17.5% over the same period from last year.

In line with this, as of mid-May the country's import-export turnover had hit US$270.82 billion, with a surplus of US$6.36 billion.

Most notably, all 10 of the nation’s largest export markets had enjoyed positive growth during the reviewed period, including the United States, the EU, China, ASEAN, the Republic of Korea (RoK), Japan, Hong Kong (China), India, Canada, and Australia. Among them, the five largest markets with the most impressive increases are the US, China, the EU, ASEAN, and Hong Kong (China).

This year’s exports likely to achieve growth target

According to Dr. Le Quoc Phuong, former deputy director of the Center for Industry and Trade Information under the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), although the global economy is considered to have not yet fully recovered and is still volatile due to competition and other geopolitical problems, this year is said to be more positive with regards to import and export activities.

Accordingly, imports and exports are forecast to enjoy a slight recovery, with inflation occurring in major economies worldwide such as the US and EU starting to fall despite being at a low level.

The central banks of many countries have already stopped raising interest rates and it is possible that from June or July, many major economies will lower interest rates, meaning at this time the world economy will begin to gradually increase.

The Vietnamese economy is highly open and its exports heavily depend on the situation globally. Therefore, increased global demand will serve to boost Vietnamese exports and imports and in turn increase export activities.

Moreover, throughout 2022 and 2023, due to the difficult economic situation, low demand occurring in many countries which mainly use inventory goods.

Therefore, the inventory has been exhausted, forcing them to import again and pushing global demand to begin to increase slightly. These factors help current Vietnamese exports in a number of products to increase relatively, especially consumer goods.

With this analysis, Dr. Le Quoc Phuong believes that from now until the end of the year the nation’s import and export activities will see positive signs.

In this context, import and export activities face plenty of difficulties due to the impact of complex and unpredictable developments taking place in the region and throughout the world, high inflation reducing export orders, conflicts in many places, the disruption of global supply chain, and increasing production and transportation costs.

However, according to estimated data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, during the past five months of the year, export turnover reached roughly US$156.5 billion, an increase of 15% over last year’s corresponding period. Indeed, exports to free trade agreement (FTA) markets all have good recovery.