Vietnam’s economic growth projected to rebound from 2024
Vietnam’s economic growth is likely to rebound in 2024 and 2025, according to Dorsati Madani, Senior Economist at the World Bank (WB).
Madani noted that Vietnam's major trading partners, including the US, Europe, and China, have all experienced negative impacts in recent times due to global instabilities and reduced demand.
Low demand has dampened Vietnam's economic momentum, leading to a decrease in economic growth. The import and export turnover has declined, impacting industrial production value.
Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM)'s General Research Department Nguyen Anh Duong said to achieve robust economic growth, Vietnam needs to do its utmost from various perspectives, including reform, policy management, and maintaining a stable and favourable economic environment for investors.
Maintaining macroeconomic stability serves as the foundation, but it's still important to create a favourable environment and improve capital absorption capacity, Duong stressed.
Duong put forth three growth scenarios for Vietnam in 2023.
In the first scenario, Vietnam’s GDP is predicted to expand by 5.34% in 2023, with exports for the whole year decreasing by 5.64% and the average Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 3.43%. The country is expected to enjoy a trade surplus of US$9.1 billion.
In the second one, CIEM expects the country's GDP will rise by 5.72%, with the export turnover decreasing by 3.66%, and the average CPI increasing by 3.87%. The trade balance will reach a surplus of approximately US$10.3 billion.
The third scenario forecasts a more positive global economic context with improvements in growth recovery and credit and public investment disbursement, business environment and labour productivity; a significant reduction in supply chain disruptions, decreased inflation in the US, more favourable weather conditions, and Vietnam’s determined reforms and effective management.
CIEM expects the country’s GDP growth to surge by 6.46% in 2023. Accordingly, full-year exports will decrease by only 2.17%, while the average CPI increasing by 4.39%. The country will enjoy a trade surplus of around US$6.8 billion.
Phan Le Thanh Long, CEO of AFA Group, predicted that the exchange rate of VND/USD will slightly increase within 1%.