Three scenarios for HCM City’s economic growth in first quarter
VOV.VN - The Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Studies (HIDS) outlined three scenarios for the southern city’s economic growth in the first quarter of the year at a meeting held on February 1 aimed at reviewing the situation and socio-economic performance in January, as well as proposing solutions for February.
According to Master Nguyen Truc Van, director of the Ho Chi Minh City Center for socio-economic simulation and forecasting of the HIDS, in January the socio-economic situation in the southern metropolis showed positive signs when purchasing power and industrial production activities maintained growth momentum. In addition, the monetary market to support businesses in lending capital for production also saw drastic changes.
However, there are still some warnings such as import and export facing numerous difficulties due to a sharp fall in aggregate demand, falling prices of some commodities, high inventory index, some manufacturing industries being at a disadvantage, some environmental taxes applied in the European market, and carbon credits posing many challenges.
As part of efforts to avoid repeating the low growth scenario as seen in the first quarter of last year, according to Van, immediately in late 2023 the southern city took drastic actions to promote growth with a particular focus on forecasting, ordering institutes and universities to participate in research, consultation, and promoting public investment right from the beginning of the year.
This includes promoting domestic consumption, regional connectivity, promotions, e-commerce, and stimulating consumer demand associated with the Lunar New Year.
According to three growth scenarios for the first quarter of the year proposed by the HIDS, the unfavourable scenario is that major economies recover slowly; political conflicts in the world continue to escalate; pandemics remain unpredictable; and new economic growth drivers have not been promoted, with Ho Chi Minh City's GRDP is forecast to reach about 4.83% to 5.95%.
As for the base scenario of continuing the recovery momentum at the end of 2023, promoting traditional growth drivers and new drivers such as science and technology, digital transformation, the green and circular economy, the first quarter GRDP of Ho Chi Minh City is expected to reach 6.05%, while forecast is around 5.49% to 6.61%.
The most favourable scenario is that if the international and domestic environment sees favourable changes; risk factors are well forecast; the macroeconomy remains stable, exploitation factors are good, people's confidence and enterprises are consolidated, Ho Chi Minh City is expected to grow at 6.56%, while the forecast is about 6% to 7.12%.
"Depending on developments in global economic growth and the efforts and effectiveness of the southern city's public service implementation, different scenarios will be put forward," Van added.
