Sanguine outlook ahead for Vietnamese economy in 2025

One of the Government’s top goals is to achieve an economic growth rate of 8% or higher this year, which in turn will give a fresh impetus to the implementation of the double-digit growth target in the 2026 - 2030 period.

A “growth star" in Southeast Asia

In fact, Vietnamese economic growth of over 7% last year can be viewed as a bright spot amid the global economy continuing to face numerous difficulties and many countries enduring a spell of low growth.

Vietnam was among the few countries to achieve high economic growth in the region and the world, which was highly appreciated by international organisations.

In a recent report, HSBC described Vietnam as a "growth star" in Southeast Asia, as its economic recovery extended beyond the electronics industry to various other industries such as manufacturing, consumption, trade, and foreign direct investment (FDI) attraction.

HSBC has maintained its growth forecast for Vietnam this year at 6.5%, noting that investors remain committed to supporting the country as it continues to expand its production capacity.

Meanwhile, both the World Bank (WB) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have also raised their growth forecast for the country.

According to the ADB, the Vietnamese economy is likely to expand 6.6% this year, thanks to a strong trade performance, a resurgence in export-led manufacturing, and ongoing fiscal stimulus measures. Similarly, Vietnamese growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to 6.5% by the WB.

In a recent report, Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) has revised its forecast for Vietnam's 2025 GDP growth to 7% from its previous 6.6% projection, following strong momentum recorded last year.

UOB experts hold, the country ended 2024 on a strong note, with real GDP growth surging to 7.55% in the fourth quarter. This figure was well above the median consensus view of 6.7% and the bank's 5.2% forecast.

Manufacturing and services continue to be the main growth drivers, while foreign trade still maintains a strong growth rate. The 8% economic growth goal therefore seems overly ambitious, although there is still merit in fulfilling the target.

The UOB expects that positive developments from domestic drivers such as manufacturing, consumer spending, and the number of tourist arrivals will contribute to economic growth, especially in the first half of the year.

Pressure and major growth drivers for 2025

The National Assembly has set a growth target of between 6.5% and 7% for this year, while Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh recently set a goal of achieving economic growth of at least 8%.

These ambitious goals are anticipated to be supported by faster disbursement of public investment to accelerate infrastructure development and attract greater investment.

Addressing the recent 17th Vietnam Economic Scenario Forum’s spring 2025 plenary session, Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc stressed that the fulfilment of 15 targets set for 2024 has become a driving force and also a pressure for the country’s economic growth in 2025 and the following years.

With regard to new factors that will propel economic growth this year, Phoc again highlighted three breakthroughs, including institutional improvement, infrastructure construction, and human resource development. In particular, he said, human resource breakthrough is considered to be the core solution to changing the nature of growth in the coming time.

Dr. Nguyen Bich Lam, former director general of the General Statistics Office (GSO), analysed that with the global economy in the 2024 - 2026 period projected to grow by 3.2%, lower than the pre-pandemic period, it will be challenging to obtain the targets set by the National Assembly and the Prime Minister.

Dr. Lam pointed out that a number of factors will affect Vietnamese GDP growth this year, including high pressure placed on the exchange rate, geopolitical and trade risks, as well as high global inflation.

Meanwhile, economist Can Van Luc outlined how free trade agreements (FTAs) that Vietnam has joined will open up fresh opportunities for bolstering exports moving forward. In addition, other factors such as investment, export, and consumption are expected to maintain growth momentum in the time ahead. 

Luc also underlined the need to strictly monitor the macro economy, inflation, and exchange rate, especially when both the corporate bond market and the real estate market are showing positive signs of recovery.

Another key factor is institutional breakthroughs and apparatus streamlining, which in turn will consolidate businesses and people’s trust in achieving the growth target.

With this momentum, the growth target of between 7.5% and 8% for 2025 and beyond will therefore be feasible.

For his part, Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Duc Tam underscored the importance of devising drastic solutions aimed at meeting the growth target of at least 8% whilst striving to reach double-digit growth in the coming years.

“In 2025, we must continue to perfect institutions, which is regarded as one of the driving forces to accelerate the country’s economic growth,” Tam emphasised.

He also underlined the need to continue to stabilise the macro economy, curb inflation, and ensure the economy’s major balances, as well as removing hurdles for firms to help them return to operation.

Other solutions are to renew growth drivers through investment attraction, and stimulate consumption, as well as import and export activities, he added.

Tam also highlighted the significance of speeding up the completion of infrastructure, as well as building financial hubs in Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang, which in turn will provide a solid foundation for economic growth in the coming time.