This assessment was made at a recent seminar on the seafood sector’s adaptability, jointly organized by the Voice of Vietnam (VOV) Online Newspaper and the Trade Remedies Authority under the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

Freshwater fish sector faces hurdles

Evaluating the market, Nguyen Ngo Vi Tam, Chair of the Freshwater Fish Product Committee at VASEP, noted that the flagship product, Tra fish (pangasius), recorded solid growth of 9% over the ten-month period.

However, export turnover to the US in August and September declined significantly due to changes in reciprocal tariffs. Part of the reason stems from caution among US importers and distributors, who are assessing consumer demand against newly taxed inventory and gauging the market’s “price acceptance threshold.”

Still, Tam projected that in 2025, the pangasius and broader seafood sector will achieve overall growth exceeding 10%.

“This is thanks to enterprises’ efforts in market expansion, capitalizing on free trade agreements (FTAs), and State management agencies’ efforts in negotiating reciprocal duty rates in the US market,” she said.

The VASEP representative cautioned that if the US imposes a 20% tariff on seafood, Vietnam’s shrimp exports could be hit due to high costs and dependence on external supply. Pangasius, while benefiting from lower prices, may be affected by flooding at the end of 2025, which could limit output.

As a result, the first quarter of 2026 will be a key indicator for assessing the sector’s performance for the year. It will test the US market’s price acceptance and the ability of Vietnamese producers to recover raw material supply.

Increasingly complex and sophisticated barriers

From a regulatory perspective, Luong Hoang Thai, Director of the Trade Remedies Authority, warned of adverse trends in major markets. In the US, multiple measures are applied simultaneously, including reciprocal tariffs, anti-dumping investigations, and changes to trade remedy policies.

According to Thai, Vietnam needs to actively negotiate to ensure a fair playing field, giving weight to US importers’ and consumers’ voices in policy-making affecting Vietnamese goods.

He assessed that a 20% countervailing duty is excessively high relative to the actual value. Relevant agencies have been actively advocating for adjustments, resulting in the US voluntarily reducing tariffs to 0% on certain items, benefiting American consumers.

“Notably, the US Supreme Court is expected to rule in December 2025 on whether the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US government are constitutional. Some legal opinions suggest a greater than 50% chance the duties will be overturned, as the authorities’ arguments may be insufficient,” he added.

However, the Director warned that the US still has numerous legal instruments to achieve protectionist aims. Vietnam must therefore prepare in advance for increasingly sophisticated technical barriers.

“Thorough preparation is needed for all scenarios, particularly anti-dumping duties. Other measures, for example, government support to Vietnamese enterprises, could also be interpreted by the US as protectionist moves,” Thai concluded.

Textile, seafood sectors seek to maintain market share amid 20% US tariff imposition

VOV.VN - The US government’s 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports is straining the textile and seafood sectors by raising costs and reducing competitiveness, but industry leaders remain hopeful as businesses can adapt through operational optimisation and market diversification.