HCM City growth tops 7% in nine months, defies forecasts

Ho Chi Minh City’s economy expanded 7.02% in the first nine months of the year, with momentum building each quarter despite concerns earlier this year about US tariff impacts, according to the municipal Statistics Office.

Gross regional domestic product rose 8.11% in the third quarter from a year earlier, up from 7.24% in the second quarter.

The acceleration lifted growth in the January–September period to 7.07%, compared with 6.56% in the first half.

Services continued to lead, expanding 8.59% and accounting for more than half of output.

Retail sales and consumer services revenue rose 15.3% to VND1.4 quadrillion (US$55 billion).

Industry and construction also strengthened, with construction climbing 8.57% and industry up 5.07%.

The industrial production index (IPI) gained 6.9%, supported by processing and manufacturing.

Public investment disbursement reached VND59.6 trillion (US$2.2 billion), nearly half of the annual plan, helping to underpin the recovery.

Challenges

Still, challenges persist. The number of newly licensed businesses fell 11% to just over 41,000 in the period, while registered capital slumped nearly a third.

Inflation picked up, with consumer prices climbing 4.06%, compared with 3.17% a year earlier. Gold prices surged 37.8%.

The city, Vietnam’s main growth engine, has set an 8.5% expansion target for 2025. To reach that goal, it would need to post quarterly growth of at least 12% in the final three months.

Officials are betting on a new two-tier governance model and faster public investment to maintain momentum, though they caution the system is still being tested.

The city People’s Committee has formed three task forces to accelerate disbursement, oversee key projects, and remove bottlenecks in land clearance and infrastructure relocation.

Despite global uncertainty and structural adjustments at home, HCM City enters the last quarter of the year with growth running ahead of the national average, officials said.

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