Exports to US likely to enjoy constant growth in second half

According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnamese exports to the US reached US$54.3 billion, up 22.1% on-year, ranking first in turnover growth rate, and surpassing other markets such as the EU, ASEAN and the Republic of Korea (RoK).

In the opposite direction, imports from the US stood at US$ 7.1 billion, marking a year-on-year rise of 2.8%, while trade surplus was estimated at US$47.2 billion.

Vietnam currently has 8 export items to the US worth over US$10 billion, including computers and components at more than US$10 billion, and textiles and garments at US$6 billion. With such a growth rate, two-way trade turnover may soon exceed the US$100 billion mark this year.

As for wood products, the US currently accounts for about 53% of Vietnam's total export turnover. Among 33 cashew export markets, the US is also Vietnam’s largest cashew consumer with 93,105 tons, up 24% over the same period from last year and accounting for 26% of the Southeast Asian nation’s total cashew exports.

According to the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's cashew export turnover soared by 18.7% over last year’s corresponding period to US$1.94 billion in the first half of this year.

Tran Minh Thang, head of the Vietnam Trade Office Branch in San Francisco said that Vietnam is the 8th largest trading partner of the US, with the 3rd largest trade surplus just behind China and Mexico.

In the second half of 2024, the US's GDP growth may reach 1.5% before increasing to 1.7% in 2025, and inflation will remain stable at 2.5%, therefore, the Federal Reserve System ( FED) will loosen its monetary policy in the second half of 2024, Thang went on.

Tran Thanh Huyen, head of the Investment Department of VinaCapital analyzed that important component of the purchasing managers' index (PMI) is the new orders index. This index hit a near record high of 59.2 points, the highest level over the past 13 years which indicated the recovery prospects of the manufacturing industry with returning orders.

"The recovery prospect of the manufacturing industry is the return of export orders, most of which come from the US market," Huyen added.

According to expert assessments, retail businesses in the North American nation are ending the inventory clearance period and returning to ordering. Additionally  US people's income is increasing again coupled with growing consumption  which will boost purchasing activities of importers and drive Vietnamese exports up again.

Concerning exports activities in general, Ass .Professor Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh - economic expert - said that new export orders in the manufacturing sector will continue to increase in the time to come.

“The FED may lower interest rates soon but the reduction will not be more than 0.5%. A slight depreciation of the USD will not greatly impact on Vietnam's socio-economic development, investment and imports-exports", Thinh said.