Exports, e-commerce drive Vietnam’s economic growth in 2025

While the National Assembly has set an ambitious GDP growth target of 6.5-7% for 2025, the government expects to exceed these projections.

In its recent post on iseas.edu.sg, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore identified several key drivers supporting this optimistic outlook, including strong export growth, substantial foreign investment inflows, domestic reforms under new leadership, and accelerated infrastructure development.

However, the institute pointed out several challenges for the country such as global economic turbulence, possibility of power shortage and weak consumption.

Meanwhile, a recent article on aseanbriefing.com highlighted that Vietnam's e-commerce success is attributed to its tech-savvy young population and high social media integration. The country's digital transformation is characterised by the rise of e-commerce, digital payments, and cross-border trade, positioning Vietnam as a key player in Southeast Asia's digital economy.

The country's e-commerce market has emerged as one of Southeast Asia's fastest-growing sectors. A joint report by Google, Temasek, and Bain & Company reveals that Vietnam's digital economy reached a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of US$36 billion in 2024, marking a US$5 billion  increase from 2023. The report projects this value could surge to between US$90-200 billion by 2030. The e-commerce sector alone achieved a GMV of US$22 billion in 2024, up US$3 billion from the previous year, with forecasts suggesting it could reach US$63 billion by 2030.

The market growth is further supported by widespread mobile access, expanding middle class, increasing urbanisation, and continued engagement in free trade agreements. Furthermore, the Government’s investment in digital infrastructure has streamlined customs procedures, improved internet connectivity, and enhanced payment systems, helping strengthen Vietnam's position as a cross-border e-commerce hub.