Enterprises expect poor performance in Q1 due to weak macro data
Many enterprises forecast less optimistic business results in the first quarter of the year, due to weak domestic macro data in the first few months.
The global economy has started 2023 with uncertainties and challenges with inflation in many countries remaining at high levels despite showing signs of cooling down, hurting the Vietnamese economy and social situation.
The country's consumer price index grew 4.6% year-on-year during the period, while the core inflation increased 5.08%, said the General Statistics Office. Moreover, the index of industrial production fell 6.3%, foreign investment declined by 38%, and export turnover was down 10.4% due to a reduction in orders.
Thereby, many enterprises expect adverse business results in the first quarter.
Particularly, the leading tyre producer Danang Rubber Joint Stock Company sets a target of VND1.1 trillion (US$46.3 million) in net revenue and VND70 billion in profit before tax, both down 14% over last year.
Bao Viet Securities (BVSC) said that the company reported net revenue of VND301 billion in January, a decline of 23% year-on-year. The reduction was driven by seasonal factors and weaker demand affected by difficulties of the wider markets.
However, leaders of the company said that there are signs of recovery of the domestic market in February and March. Even though the export market dropped by about 9% to US$10 million, it can reach US$11-12 million a month in the remaining two months.
Meanwhile, export volume was supported by growing demand in Brazil, and improvement in tyre orders in Asian markets such as Myanmar, Egypt and the Middle East since February.
Digiworld also forecasts that its first quarter's revenue will decrease by 43% to VND4 trillion, while net profit falls 38% to VND130 billion, following the downtrend of the fourth quarter of 2022.
Doan Hong Viet, chairman of the Board of Directors of Digiworld, said that the demand for information and communication technology (ICT) equipment is at a low level due to signs of economic recession, causing consumers to reduce spending. On the other hand, during the COVID-19 pandemic, ICT products sold well and had not yet reached the replacement cycle.
Challenges remain until the second quarter, the head of Digiworld said, adding that recovery will begin in the second half of the year when the world economy is better, the Vietnamese export orders increase, and income improves, leading to an increase in purchasing power.
Duc Giang Chemical Group plans its first quarter's revenue to reach nearly VND2.6 trillion with consolidated profit after tax of VND700 billion, down 29% and 53% on-year, respectively. Therefore, Duc Giang Chemical's profit is forecast to continue to decline after peaking in the second quarter of 2022.
Mirae Asset said that China's zero-COVID policy from May 2022 - January 2023 caused a reduction in demand for semiconductor products, affecting the demand for yellow phosphorus - the company's main product. Therefore, the reopening of China's economy and production promotion of electronic devices will help semiconductor demand rebound, balancing Duc Giang Chemical's profit in the first half of 2023.
Meanwhile, after achieving positive results last year, LIX Detergent sets a negative target for the first quarter of the year with profit before tax down 9% to VND50 billion, while its revenue is almost flat. If it meets the target, the results will be the company's worst performance since the third quarter of 2021.
With difficulties in the cement market and packaging production industry, leaders of Vicem Packaging Bim Son set a target of only VND261 billion in revenue in 2023 and VND1.5 billion in profit before tax. In the first quarter alone, the company estimated revenue of VND62 billion and a loss of VND180 million.
Although its business activities have not experienced outstanding performance since 2003, Vicem Packaging Bim Son never suffered a loss.
In the rubber industry, Tan Bien Rubber foresees a loss of VND9 billion in the first quarter of this year, while the profit is unchanged over last year at VND38 billion.
According to data from the General Department of Customs, rubber prices decreased by 17% on-year despite a recovery compared to the end of 2022. As of mid-February, rubber exports dipped 8% in volume and 27% in value.
VNDirect Securities Corporation considers the reopening of China's economy a very good opportunity for rubber prices and exports to recover.