The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) recently upgraded Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 7%, up from a previous estimate of 6.5%. This marks the highest projected growth rate in the region, surpassing the Philippines, which is anticipated to grow by 5.6%.

AMRO Chief Economist Dong He attributed the adjustment to Vietnam’s impressive economic performance in the first half of 2025, where GDP expanded by 7.52%. Key growth drivers included robust domestic consumption, a strong rebound in manufacturing and services, and an export recovery. Industry and construction grew by 8.33%, services by 8.14%, and agriculture–forestry–fishery by 3.84%.

Vietnam’s total import-export turnover reached US$432 billion, up 16.1% year on year. Foreign direct investment (FDI) stayed strong, with registered capital exceeding US$21 billion. The top investors were Singapore, China, and Sweden. The domestic market also showed strong momentum, with over 91,000 newly established businesses in the first seven months of the year.

International media and analysts, including Reuters and Fitch Solutions, noted that progress in trade negotiations between Vietnam and the United States has reduced risk and created momentum for Vietnam to move into higher-value industries, particularly semiconductors.

However, consulting firm ARC Group warned that while Vietnam’s growth outlook is positive, achieving the government’s ambitious 8% target in 2025 will not be without challenges. Global demand remains uncertain, and capital flows are affected by persistently high interest rates in many countries.

In this context, it said, streamlining and enhancing the efficiency of the administrative system is considered a critical breakthrough, reflecting the long-term vision of Vietnamese leadership. This reform effort will facilitate business operations, particularly in key areas such as manufacturing, logistics, and infrastructure, and further attract FDI through simplified procedures.

Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in July downgraded its regional forecasts for developing Asia-Pacific economies, projecting 4.7% growth in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026. For Vietnam, ADB revised its GDP forecast slightly downward to 6.3% in 2025 and 6% in 2026, mainly due to potential impacts from new U.S. tariffs.

Nonetheless, ADB maintained a positive view on Vietnam’s fundamentals. FDI pledges rose by 32.6% in the first half of the year, with disbursements up 8.1%, indicating strong investor confidence. ADB also forecast the country’s inflation to decline to 3.9% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026, amid easing global commodity prices.

In a similar move, United Overseas Bank (UOB) raised its 2025 GDP forecast for Vietnam from 6% to 6.9%, following a stronger-than-expected second quarter in which GDP surged 7.9%. The first-half growth of 7.5% was Vietnam’s highest midyear performance since 2011.

Overall, while many economies in the region are under pressure, Vietnam continues to assert its position as an attractive investment destination with a positive growth outlook and strong resilience in the face of global challenges.

PM orders bottlenecks removed to enable semiconductor industry growth

VOV.VN - Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has emphasised the urgent need to remove bottlenecks in mechanisms, policies, human resources, and infrastructure to create favourable conditions for semiconductors to become a strategic driver of Vietnam’s economic growth and international integration.