Difficulties to remain for textile, garment exports in H1: insiders

The Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex) said though forecasts had been made early, its members were still surprised at unpredictable changes in 2022 such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and surges in oil prices, inflation, and interest rates, which have caused demand to nose-dive in importing markets.

Yet Vinatex estimated its 2022 consolidated revenue at over VND19.53 trillion (US$826.84 million), up 15% from last year and 8% higher than the target, and consolidated profit at more than VND1 trillion, up 14.6% from the target. These figures are assessed as encouraging amid numerous market difficulties.

Pointing out three scenarios, Vinatex President Le Tien Truong said in the best-case one – the global economy will have become stable and geopolitical conflicts been over by the end of the second quarter - exports next year may go up 4 - 5% from 2022.

In the middle-case scenario – instabilities will linger on, inflation remain, and interest rates still increase until Q3 - exports may stay unchanged compared to this year. And in the worst-case one where the world economy will enter a recession, the 2023 revenue may be about 5% lower than that of this year.

Meanwhile, the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS) has forecast its export revenue this year is likely to stand at nearly US$44.5 billion, up 10% from 2021.

For 2023, textile and garment exports may reach US$47 - 48 billion in the positive scenario and US$45 - 46 billion in the lower-case scenario, Vinatex noted, adding that how enterprises adapt to changes in markets will affect their growth in any circumstance.

In the positive scenario – instabilities in the global market will be brought under control, all activities of the sector may have recovered by the end of next year’s Q1. In such case, US$48 billion in revenue is achievable.

However, VITAS President Vu Duc Giang said, in the second scenario under which the global market will recover in the latter half of 2023, export turnover may reach US$45 billion.

In the current context, when international markets do not place long-term textile and garment orders, businesses can switch to producing lower-value items. In 2022, as they have started to diversify markets and products, growth is still sustained.

In any scenario, textile and garment markets will be unable to bounce back at least in the first half of 2023.

However, experts held that there are still certain bright spots next year, noting the COVID-19 pandemic is being put under control, the world getting used to a new normal, the Asia-Pacific predicted to be the fastest-growing region in 2023, China easing the zero-COVID policy, and logistics costs showing signs of declining.