CIEM outlines three scenarios for Vietnamese economic growth

In the best-case scenario, CIEM economists forecast that Vietnamese exports will decrease by 2.17% this year, while the average consumer price index (CPI) edged up 4.39% with the nation enjoying a trade surplus of US$6.8 billion.

These figures can be achieved providing positive changes occur in the global economic situation and the country makes drastic reforms, thereby helping to accelerate the disbursement of public investment, as well as improving the local business environment and labour productivity.

In the first scenario, Vietnamese GDP growth is forecast to reach 5.34% this year while exports are likely to drop by 5.64%. The average CPI inched up 3.43%, with the country posting a trade surplus of US$9.1 billion.

In the second scenario, the country’s GDP growth is projected at 5.72% this year, with exports suffering a decline of 3.66%. The average CPI in 2023 increased by 3.87%, with the nation racking up a trade surplus of US$10.3 billion.

In the CIEM’s report released at the workshop, Vietnamese economic growth rate in the first half of the year reached 3.72%. Indeed, the country’s economic growth improved among quarters, reaching 3.28% in the first quarter and 4.14% in the second quarter.

Dr. Tran Thi Hong Minh, director of CIEM, stated that amid global uncertainties, the nation has maintained a comprehensive approach by accelerating socio-economic recovery in line with building an independent and self-reliant economy in association with active international integration.

Throughout the reviewed period, the disbursement rate of public investment capital as of June 30 reached 30.49% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister, higher than the figure of 27.75% recorded in the same period from last year.

Meanwhile, Vietnamese FDI attraction is estimated to stand at VND13.43 billion, down 4.3%, although the disbursement of FDI capital increased by 0. 5%.

These achievements has been attributed to the fact that the Government has focused on fine-tuning polices, as well as handling backlog issues related to the supply of petroleum, medical supplies, electricity, and corporate bonds.

Moreover, the Government has also concentrated on accelerating the construction of key transport projects and seeking new export opportunities, and deploying digital and green transformation and renewing growth model to add fresh impetus to economic recovery.