The office’s quarterly survey for Q3 of 2025, which focused on manufacturing and processing firms, shows widespread optimism.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) enterprises are the most optimistic, with 81% forecasting better or stable conditions in Q3. Confidence is similarly high among domestic private firms (80.7%) and state-owned enterprises (79.8%).

More businesses believe in an upward trend in production volume, new orders and, especially, export orders. Despite the upcoming US reciprocal tariffs on Vietnamese exports, 30.8% of firms expect an increase in new export orders in Q3, while 51% foresee stable demand and 18.2% predict a decline.

Phi Thi Huong Nga, head of the NSO’s Industrial and Construction Statistics Department, noted that the next few months are crucial for production growth ahead of consumer demand peaks during the year-end holidays in the US and Europe.

Nguyen Viet Thang, CEO of Hoa Phat Group, explained that though the US tariffs may drive hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel prices above US$900 per tonne, export deals remain profitable. However, Hoa Phat still prioritises the domestic market, which accounts for 80% of its sales.

Hoa Phat is also expanding its Dung Quat 2 Plant, with full capacity expected by Q4 this year. This will boost its HRC output to 8.6 million tonnes annually, and the company is targeting high-quality and specialty steel segments to enhance long-term value.

Domestically, the ongoing transition to a two-tier local government system and administrative reforms are reducing bureaucracy for businesses and helping them better plan production. Additionally, the strong crackdown on counterfeit goods is encouraging legitimate manufacturers to expand.

However, the NSO pointed out that industrial production still faces considerable challenges. Volatile global oil and gas prices and shifting trade policies may raise production costs and disrupt supply chains, thus eroding businesses' competitiveness.

Furthermore, the push for cleaner manufacturing, coupled with greater IT application and smart production, requires significant investment, presenting a financial burden for many firms.

Surveyed businesses identified weak domestic demand and local products' competitiveness as the biggest factors affecting their operations. Other challenges include low international demand, financial constraints, difficulties in recruiting suitable labour, and competition with imports.

To alleviate pressure and ensure business resilience through the remainder of the year, Nga noted that fewer companies are calling for interest rate cuts compared to Q1 (down 1.7 percentage points), but 38.7% still seek further lending rate reductions.

Additionally, 31.8% of firms urge the government to take more effective measures to stabilise raw material and energy prices, particularly electricity, which has seen multiple price hikes since October 2024, adding strain to production budgets.

On administrative reform, 25.9% of companies want further streamlining procedures, especially in motorised vehicle manufacturing (33.3%), wood processing (48.6%), and metal production (32.2%). Meanwhile, 25.4% call for stabilising raw material supply chains.

Vietnam records highest industrial production growth in five years

Vietnam’s industrial production in the second quarter of 2025 continued to grow, with the Industrial Index of Production (IIP) estimated to rise by 10.3% year-on-year, including a 12.3% increase in the processing and manufacturing sector, according to the latest report from the National Statistics Office (NSO).