ADB maintains 6.0% growth forecast for Vietnam in 2024
VOV.VN - The Asian Development Bank has maintained its growth forecast for Vietnam at 6.0% in 2024 and 6.2% in 2025 on the back of its sound economic performance in the first half of the year.
In its latest edition Asian Development Outlook (ADO) released on July 17, the bank said however, trade-related manufacturing - one of its main drivers of recovery - is expected to slow down over the near term, while domestic demand will also remain subdued. Inflation is projected to stabilize at 4.0% during the above two-year period.
Addressing a press briefing in Hanoi on July 17, ADB Vietnam country director Shantanu Chakraborti said the ADB is quite cautious about its economic growth forecast in Vietnam and keeps this rate lower than the 7% target set by the Prime Minister.
In his view, geopolitical tensions, instability in some countries, and policy changes of Vietnam’s major partners may affect the country’s economic growth.
7% is quite an ambitious target, he said, adding Vietnam has also made changes in policies and laws, while improving the investment and business environment.
There are five months left till the end of the year, and a target of more than 6.5% may not be too difficult for Vietnam, he noted.
The ADB is expected to give an update in another ADO edition this September.
Nguyen Ba Hung, chief economist at ADB Vietnam, said that import-export activities remain the main driving force for economic growth, alongside the service sector, which is growing steadily.
However, he pointed out the biggest challenge comes from external factors, given the fact that Vietnam heavily relies on import and export activities.
Besides, he said the domestic economy is still facing many difficulties, revealing some weaknesses in the economic structure. Extreme weather will continue to impact production this year.
According to the chief economist, despite a positive outlook, caution is needed. The recovery mainly depends on external factors, mainly foreign investment and trade. Risk factors that are likely to hamper growth include weak global demand and continued geopolitical conflicts.
In this context, fiscal policies to support growth and public investment will be key to promoting domestic demand, he stated.
