Middle East: 2013’s most unstable region

Territorial disputes, uranium enrichment, and internal conflicts caused instability, conflicts and civil war in the end. These conflicts have continued for a long time with no solution.

Middle East picture is shadowed 

In 2013, Syria might be the hottest place in the region. The long-lasting civil war has resulted in more than 100,000 deaths and made millions of people homeless. Famine has reached an alarming level, especially in war ravaged areas.

Violence spread across Iraq

While Syria was threatened by military intervention by the West, but on September 15, Russia and the US reached a surprising agreement under which Syria would allow the UN to inspect all of its chemical weapons stockpiles and would sign the international treaty prohibiting chemical weapons.

This agreement barred the West from automatically imposing sanctions on Syria for failing to abide by UN resolutions. But ridding Syria of chemical weapons was not enough to end the civil war. Fire fights between the Syrian army and the rebels continue. Many analysts say destroying the chemical weapons has not significantly impacted the rebels.

Despite diplomatic efforts by US Secretary of State John Kerry, Middle East peace prospects didn’t improve much in 2013. Dialogues between Israel and Palestine failed once again. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proceeded with the construction of more Jewish resettlements in Palestinian territory.

Egypt experienced many changes in 2013. Egyptian President Mohamad Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood was ousted one year after taking power. This sparked a series of demonstrations by Morsi loyalists.

Growing protests, and violence have pushed Egypt into a grave serious political crisis. An interim government, backed by the army, has struggled to revise the Constitution and prepare for elections that might bring Egypt back to democracy and stability.

The situation in Iraq in 2013 was the worst in the last several years. Some 9,500 people died in bombings and attacks across the country, the most since 2008.

The most positive sign in the Middle East in 2013 was an historic agreement between the P5+1 Group and Iran signed in Geneva on November 24. Though it is just a short-term agreement with temporary provisions, it was highly praised because for 3 decades nuclear disagreements between P5+1 and Iran have been intractable. Analysts say the agreement has reduced the inflexibility of the parties.

Prospects for 2014

Observers agree that the world’s hot spots won’t cool down overnight. British Foreign Secretary William Hague warned that violence and instability in the Middle East are likely to continue in the next few years.

Syria’s civil war shows no signs of ending. The international conference on Syria, known as the Geneva II conference, scheduled for January 22, is predicted to be very difficult as the opposition wants a government without Bashar Al Assad while Assad vows he will run for a new term in 2014.

Iran’s nuclear program still worries the public. Though the Iranian President tries to demonstrate his moderate stance, it has been difficult for him to gain trust from the West and suppress reactions from opposition groups within Iran.

Terrorists in Iran are seeking ways to increase their influence and set up relations with Muslim groups in the Middle East making terrorism a security horror in the region.