The report, “Vietnam Population Forecast 2024–2074”, outlines population trends for the country, including urban and rural areas, six socio-economic regions, and 34 provinces. It draws on mid-term census data from 2024 and projects population growth over the next 50 years under three fertility scenarios - low (1.45 children per woman), medium (1.85), and high (2.01).

Vietnam has experienced a skewed sex ratio at birth since 2005, leading to a growing surplus of men of marriageable age. The 2024 mid-term census showed about 415,200 more men than women in the 20–39 age group. By 2029, under the medium fertility scenario, for every 100 men of marriageable age, more than three will lack potential female partners due to past imbalances.

The gap is expected to widen in the following decades. By 2034, men aged 20–39 will outnumber women in the same age group by 711,700, accounting for 4.9% of the male population in that age bracket. The shortage of women will peak in 2049, with an estimated deficit of 1.3 million, corresponding to 8.7% of men in the marriageable age group.

Dr. Dinh Huy Duong, former Director of the Communication and Education Department at the Department of Population – Family Planning, highlighted the social implications that a gender imbalance at birth means a significant number of men will be unable to marry in the future.

This could also lead to increased risks of human trafficking, exploitation, and other social challenges arising from the shortage of women, he warned.

After 2049, the surplus of men is projected to gradually decline as the sex ratio at birth returns to balance. By 2074, men of marriageable age will exceed women by approximately 829,000.

The report also projects overall population growth will slow in the coming decades, peaking around 2059 under the medium fertility scenario, then stabilising or gradually declining. Under the low fertility scenario, Vietnam could see a negative population growth as early as 2051, with an annual decrease of 0.05% during 2049–2054, accelerating to 0.44% annually by 2069–2074.

Experts warned that the long-term effects of the 21st-century gender imbalance will continue to influence Vietnam’s demographic structure for decades, underscoring the urgent need for policies addressing population balance and gender equity.

Vietnam marks progress in population work amid fertility, aging challenges

VOV.VN - Vietnam has made notable progress in population and development, effectively controlling population growth and entering a period of golden population structure that is contributing to national economic growth, said Minister of Health Dao Hong Lan.