Population landscape: rapid changes beyond forecasts

Vietnam’s population has already topped 100 million, but the 2025 population report reveals trends accelerating well beyond earlier forecasts. Fertility has nosedived to all-time lows: the total fertility rate slipped from 2.01 children per woman in 2022 to 1.96 in 2023, then plunged to a record 1.91 in 2024. Even more troubling, only 17% of provinces and cities still maintain the replacement-level rate of 2.1 children, signaling that most localities have entered a period of low fertility.

At the same time, the sex ratio at birth remained abnormally high at 111.4 boys per 100 girls in 2024, stoking fears of a looming male surplus and the social disruptions that could follow.

Aging is another trend picking up speed. Vietnam entered its “aging phase” back in 2011 and is projected to become an “aged society” after 2036. Life expectancy reached 74.7 years in 2024, but healthy life expectancy hovers around just 65 years, exposing a growing gap between living longer and living well, while piling pressure on the nation’s long-term healthcare infrastructure.

Beyond changes in size and structure, regional disparities in population quality are clearer. In mountainous and ethnic-minority regions, early marriages, consanguineous unions, child malnutrition and restricted access to healthcare and education remain prevalent, directly hampering physical development and the future labour pool.

Le Thanh Dung, Director of the Department of Population, said future efforts will centre on encouraging two-child families, targeting low-fertility areas and ethnic minorities, sustaining replacement-level fertility and restoring a balanced sex ratio at birth. Policies for elderly care, aging adaptation and broader population quality improvement will also be further refined.

A legal turning point in national population policy

Dung noted that the Population Law’s flagship policies will roll out in lockstep across agencies. Improving population quality requires true cross-sector teamwork, not just the health ministry’s burden alone, starting with premarital check-ups, prenatal and newborn screenings to catch congenital issues early, and postnatal interventions for optimal child development.

To bolster childbearing and rearing, the law extends maternity leave to seven months for women delivering a second child and grants fathers 10 days off when their wife gives birth. Targeted groups, including women from ethnic minorities, those in low-fertility regions or bearing two children before the age of 35, may qualify for extra financial incentives under defined criteria.

Notably, the law offers preferential access to social housing for families with two or more biological children, fast-tracking purchases, rent-to-own options or rentals. Such incentives tackle a key deterrent to larger families, particularly in big cities grappling with skyrocketing housing and cost-of-living pressures.

Finally, to deal with the skewed sex ratio, the law lays down tough bans on all forms of fetal sex selection and revealing fetal gender if the intent is abortion.

Vietnam’s birth rate hits record low, raising alarm

The country's birth rate has reached an all-time low, estimated at 1.96 children per woman in 2023, with forecasts suggesting further declines.