The information was shared by Nguyen Hong Khanh, Deputy Director of the Department of Irrigation Works Management and Construction, at a regular press briefing held by Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment on March 11.

Khanh said that, according to information from the ministry’s specialized agencies, the ENSO phenomenon is expected to gradually shift to a neutral state in the coming period.

Forecasts indicate that from now until the end of May 2026, ENSO is likely to move to a neutral phase with a probability of about 80-90%. During the period from June to August 2026, the phenomenon is expected to continue in a neutral state, although the probability of shifting to El Niño may gradually increase to around 35-45%.

Regarding water resources, rainfall and river flows in southern regions, including the South Central, Southeast and Mekong Delta regions, are generally forecast to be close to the multi-year average. However, as the region is entering the peak of the dry season, actual water availability remains relatively low.

Current water storage in irrigation reservoirs and several hydropower reservoirs serving agricultural production stands at about 70-80% of designed capacity, which is considered an average level.

Based on hydrometeorological forecasts and reservoir storage levels, the ministry’s specialized agencies assess that the risk of drought and water shortages during the 2025-2026 dry season will mainly occur in localized areas.

Specifically, water supply in the South Central and Southeast regions is generally sufficient for agricultural production. However, shortages may occur at smaller irrigation works or in areas outside irrigation systems. Coastal areas of the South Central region require particular attention in July and August 2026, while the South Central Highlands and Southeast region may face pressure on water resources in March and April 2026.

Saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta remains severe

In the Mekong Delta, saltwater intrusion has appeared at levels comparable to the multi-year average and has affected water supplies for agricultural production and daily use during certain periods.

From now until May 2026, flows from the Mekong River to the Mekong Delta are likely to continue declining

However, thanks to irrigation infrastructure already invested in the Mekong Delta, the ability to proactively control saltwater intrusion is assessed to be relatively good. As a result, the risk of widespread water shortages is not considered high.

Nevertheless, water availability in the region during the dry season still depends heavily on flows from upstream sections of the Mekong River. Localities are therefore advised to monitor potential fluctuations related to the operation of upstream hydropower reservoirs, particularly during periods of water storage or limited discharge.

Localized water shortages may occur in some downstream areas of provinces such as Tay Ninh, Dong Thap, Vinh Long and Ca Mau.

Measures to tackle drought and saltwater intrusion

To proactively respond to drought, water shortages and saltwater intrusion during the 2025-2026 dry season, the Government and the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment have taken a number of measures.

The Prime Minister issued Official Dispatch No. 15 dated February 20, 2026, on proactive responses to saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta and drought and forest fires in the South Central and Southeast regions.

Following this, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment issued Document No. 1643 dated February 23, 2026, to carry out the Prime Minister’s directive and guide localities in preparing measures to prevent drought and saltwater intrusion.

The ministry has also held a conference to deploy the 2025-2026 Winter-Spring crop production plan in southern Vietnam and established working delegations to inspect and guide local authorities in implementing drought and salinity prevention measures to ensure water supply for production and daily needs.

In addition, specialized forecasts on water resources, drought and saltwater intrusion for the 2025-2026 dry season were provided early by scientific units under the ministry starting from September 2025, and have been updated regularly on a weekly and monthly basis.

Several newly built irrigation projects have also been put into operation, including the Nguyen Tan Thanh sluice  in Tien Giang, Vam Ba Lich sluice in Kien Giang and Rach Mop sluice in Soc Trang. These works help strengthen salinity control, retain freshwater and ensure water supply for agricultural production in the Mekong Delta.

French agency funds Ninh Thuan drought response project

An anti-drought, erosion and flooding project funded by the French Development Agency (AFD) in the south-central province of Ninh Thuan has got in-principle approval from the provincial People’s Council.