The Government’s Resolution No. 25/2025 sets growth targets for each sector and locality, aiming for a national GDP growth of at least 8% in 2025, while Ho Chi Minh City has been assigned an 8.5% target, lower than its own goal of 10%

Striving for 8.5% or higher?

In 2024, Ho Chi Minh City, the country’s major economic hub, recorded a growth rate of 7.17%, falling short of its target. However, the southern metropolis remains optimistic about achieving 10% in 2025, given positive signs from key drivers such as public investment, exports, and domestic consumption. The local economy has been rebounding strongly, with each quarter of 2024 recording higher growth than the one before.

Professor Nguyen Trong Hoai from the University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City (UEH) noted that while the city has a comprehensive urban development plan, its economic framework lacks clarity. He suggested a structured approach focused on four traditional industries, five emerging sectors, and six key service areas.

The city should continue investing in electronics, pharmaceuticals, machinery manufacturing, and food processing while developing biotechnology, medical equipment, automation, semiconductors, and renewable energy.

Additionally, it needs to enhance services in information technology, science and technology, logistics, high-quality healthcare, and education. More importantly, these sectors must be interconnected to ensure effective investment.

He emphasized that while high growth is desirable, sustainability should be the priority, with labor productivity being the most crucial factor. "Aiming for double-digit growth is an ambitious but valid aspiration. However, achieving this in 2025 will be challenging. The 8.5% target set by the central government is already demanding and will require a great deal of effort. What matters most is long-term productivity and income growth," he said.

According to Associate Professor Dr. Tran Hoang Ngan, the city should first secure an 8% growth rate based on traditional drivers before leveraging additional measures to reach 10%.

“To reach 8%, Ho Chi Minh City must mobilize VND 660 trillion in total social investment, including VND120 trillion in public funds. The remaining VND 500 trillion must come from private and foreign sources,” he explained.

Achieving this requires accelerating the development of industrial zones to ensure available land at competitive costs, improving transportation infrastructure, streamlining administrative procedures, and fostering a more business-friendly environment. The additional 2% growth could come from new economic drivers, including the planned international financial center and the Can Gio international transshipment port.

Strategic plans to boost growth

To meet its targets, Ho Chi Minh City has outlined three key strategies: increasing total social investment, addressing business challenges, especially stalled projects, and enhancing the investment climate and governance efficiency.

Municipal leaders are actively working with relevant agencies to secure funding, ensure timely disbursement, and prevent cost overruns or delays. This year, the southern city aims to unlock 139 hectares of industrial land, allocate around VND110 trillion in public investment, and attract approximately VND 90 trillion in foreign direct investment, prioritizing projects with immediate capital disbursement potential, including the Can Gio international transshipment port.

Businesses as the engine of growth

Professor Vu Minh Khuong from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore highlighted that the city’s greatest potential lies in its business community. Strengthening management capabilities and supporting enterprises in securing stable export markets and better pricing mechanisms will be crucial.

The city currently has about 220,000 businesses, many of which have yet to fully capitalize on expansion opportunities. A thorough assessment of business needs and stronger coordination among sectors will be essential for growth.

Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee Phan Van Mai stated that in the first quarter of 2025, authorities will assess the situation of over 200,000 small and medium-sized enterprises and household businesses with the potential to transition into formal enterprises. The city will work to resolve business challenges and minimize closures and dissolutions.

Regarding e-commerce, the municipal People’s Committee is working hand in hand with relevant sectors to promote development while ensuring tax compliance and fair competition with traditional retail businesses.

Nguyen Xuan Thanh from the Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management stated that maintaining high growth requires continuous business expansion, fresh investments, and the development of emerging industries.

“Besides public investment in infrastructure, market-driven factors must also be considered. With over 400,000 household businesses currently operating, the city should offer conditions for their transition into enterprises, which would further drive economic expansion,” he said.

As seen in the first quarter of 2025, Ho Chi Minh City is actively carrying out a score of measures to reach its 10% growth goal while ensuring it meets the Government’s 8.5% requirement. The city remains focused on innovation, business support, industrial transformation, and identifying new economic drivers to sustain long-term development.

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