Growing concern over shortcomings in forecasting and statistics

Most deputies approved the report, agreeing that 2009 was the most difficult year of the past 10 years. Thanks to great efforts on the part of the Party, State and people, and the guidance of the NA, Vietnam overcame numerous challenges and difficulties in 2009, quickly halting the economic downturn, achieving remarkable economic growth, controlling inflation, and ensuring social welfare.

Some deputies, however, pointed out certain shortcomings related to social welfare, poverty reduction, wastefulness, forecasting, statistics, overspending of the State budget, and State debts.

Accurate statistics needed

Deputy Duong Kim Anh of Tra Vinh province recommended that the Government pay more attention to resolving issues related to society, culture, sports, education, health care, and the environment, as the country failed to meet set targets in these fields last year.

Regarding the poverty rate, deputy Nguyen Van Tuyet of Yen Bai province said that it is essential to accurately specify the poverty rate. The Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs said that the poverty rate dropped to 11.3 percent, while the General Statistics Office gave a figure of 12.3 percent, he stated.

Deputy Bui Si Loi of Thanh Hoa province shared the view of Phuong Thi Thanh of Bac Kan, Huynh Van Ti of Binh Thuan, Vi Trong Le of Phu Tho, and Hoang Thi Binh of Cao Bang, that the poverty line applied since 2006 is no longer in line with the rising consumer price index, negatively impacting people’s living conditions. The gap between the rich and the poor is widening, they added.

NA delegates asked the Government to introduce measures to control market prices and set a new poverty line.

Increasing the quality of forecasting and statistics

Deputy Nguyen Van Tuyet of Yen Bai province also voiced concerns about the quality of forecasting and statistics work that affects socio-economic development. There is a big difference between estimates and realised figures. In particular, he noted, revenues of the State budget are VND51,690 billion higher than the projections reported to the National Assembly.

The total 2009 budget deficit stands at US$8.8 billion, compared with a forecast of US$1.9 billion at the National Assembly’s sixth session. This has disturbing consequences both for state spending decisions in the current year and for the budget plan for next year.

Deputy Ngo Van Minh of Quang Nam said forecasting has been neglected for many years and he called for more resources for this work.

He said: “In the previous session, we thoroughly discussed these issues and decided to put the overspending rate at more than 6 percent. Some proposed 6.5 or 7 percent. If the forecast had been accurate, I believe the government would not have suggested such a high overspending level and the National Assembly would not have agreed to the current high overspending level.”

Also on today’s agenda were economic restructuring, curbing inflation, boosting production and investment, public administration reforms, and improving State management.

Deputy Huynh Ngoc Dang warned of potential dangers of high inflation in the remaining months of 2010 and advised that the government be flexible in its plans and take precautions in the field of finance and monetary policy to achieve growth without destabilizing the macroeconomy.

Meanwhile, Deputy Nguyen Van Tuyet expressed concern over investment efficiency. Vietnam’s ICOR index for this climbed to 8 in 2009 from 5.2 in 2007, which he said calls for investigation to work out countermeasures.

Deputy Vu Quang Hai said that the ICOR index for 2009 should be publicized to create transparency as ICOR reflects the level of corruption and wastefulness.

Deputy Le Nhu Tien proposed postponing investment in projects which are low priority to focus on power projects, but he was also concerned about the haphazard power cuts used by the electricity sector, which have already caused enormous losses to businesses.

SOS on wastefulness

Vice Chairman Nguyen Duc Kien asked deputies to focus on activities to reduce wastefulness - one of the more controversial current issues.

Deputy Le Nhu Tien of Quang Tri province said the wastefulness is rampant in most fields, giving examples of wastefulness in coal mining (40-60 percent), apatite mining (26-43 percent), and iron ore mining (15-30 percent).

According to Tien, the largest category of wastefulness is land use, citing that 3,311 organizations are now using land for the wrong purpose, fallowing 25,587 ha of land. He said there are 1,763 pending projects, tying up a total area of 110,447 ha.

Agricultural policies in need

Regarding regional development policy, Deputy Ya Duk of Lam Dong province proposed a policy to buy surplus coffee from farmers as is currently done with rice.

He said although the government has had a policy of preferential interest rates for coffee businesses, farmers do not benefit much from it because most of them sold all their coffee before the policy came into effect.

Deputy Nguyen Van Phat of Thanh Hoa province said the government’s programme to mobilize different sources for socio-economic development in rural areas has not been very effective.

Phat said the government needs better preparation for the implementation of the programme because it is an important basis for creating jobs in rural areas.