In its latest macroeconomic report, Looking Ahead at 2026, the investment firm said Vietnam’s economy expanded by 8% in 2025 and was expected to maintain solid momentum this year.

“The Government expects GDP growth to accelerate to 10% in 2026, and we also see very strong growth potential, driven by soaring infrastructure spending, resilient exports and modest consumption recovery,” the report notes.

Michael Kokalari, CFA and chief economist at VinaCapital, said economic growth in 2025 was significantly boosted by an 80% jump in exports of laptops and other high-tech items to the US and by a 42% increase in both Chinese and Indian tourist arrivals, which masked mediocre domestic consumer spending growth.

This year, both consumption and export growth were expected to normalise. These two dynamics would largely offset each other, while the lagged impact of an infrastructure spending surge in 2025 would support GDP growth in 2026.

“The three main dynamics we expect to drive GDP growth in 2026 are a modest recovery in consumption, the infrastructure–real estate growth nexus, and resilient exports to the US,” he said.

Under its base-case scenario, VinaCapital forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth at around 8% in 2026. In a more positive scenario, growth could reach 10%, supported by relatively ample policy space that would allow the Government to proactively deploy growth-supporting measures if needed.

VinaCapital expects domestic consumption to return to more normal growth levels – though not a boom – by mid-2026, at which point the savings rate will have been elevated for nearly three years, giving households ample time to rebuild a considerable portion of their pre-COVID savings.

Household incomes have grown at an annual pace of around 6-7% over the past two years, while both the stock market and real estate prices rose by more than 30% in 2025, providing a stronger foundation for consumer spending.

However, the firm notes that the Government’s ambitious growth target for 2026 can only be achieved with stronger consumption growth. While authorities have already introduced several measures to support demand, VinaCapital says there remained significant scope for further action.

Recent policy steps include the extension and expansion of a VAT reduction, a modest cut in personal income taxes, and partial easing of new taxes on household businesses, which had weighed on consumer sentiment.

While these measures are expected to support spending, their direct impact on GDP growth is estimated at less than 0.5 percentage points. Nevertheless, VinaCapital stresses that the policy framework is now in place, enabling the Government to scale up stimulus if necessary.

Infrastructure investment is expected to be another major growth driver in 2026. Infrastructure disbursement rose by around 40% in 2025, and VinaCapital forecasts a further 20–30% increase this year.

“We see a nexus connecting infrastructure, feeding into real estate, and ultimately boosting consumption,” Kokalari said. In the short term, higher infrastructure spending could lift GDP growth in a manner similar to China’s post-global financial crisis stimulus.

Vietnam has ample fiscal room to expand infrastructure investment, with Government debt well below 40% of GDP, according to Kokalari.

Ongoing regulatory reforms are also expected to unlock a surge in real estate supply. Imminent changes related to land clearance and compensation for rezoned residential land could revive up to 80% of previously stalled projects, effectively turning them into 'shovel-ready' developments capable of delivering an immediate boost to growth.

Exports, particularly to the US, are expected to remain resilient in 2026. Vietnam’s exports to the US rose by 28% in 2025, contributing to a trade surplus equivalent to about 4% of GDP. While VinaCapital had initially expected export growth to slow following the imposition of a 20% reciprocal tariff by the Trump administration in August, shipments remained strong.

Effective US tariffs on Vietnam’s exports were softened by exemptions and carve-outs for certain products, including electronics, leaving tariff levels comparable to or lower than those faced by regional competitors. As long as tariff differentials do not exceed around 10 percentage points, Vietnam’s exports should remain competitive due to lower labour costs and other structural advantages. As a result, foreign direct investment inflows remained robust, rising by 9% in 2025 to around 5% of GDP.

VinaCapital expects US demand to remain firm in 2026, supported by strong consumption among upper middle-income households and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies ahead of the US mid-term elections. The firm also downplays risks related to potential transhipment tariffs, saying it is unlikely that more than a de minimis share of Vietnam’s exports to the US would incur such tariffs.

Key downside risks highlighted in the report include a potential US recession, 'grey swan' events such as geopolitical shocks or a yen carry trade unwind, and a sharp rise in domestic interest rates.

Separately, other international financial institutions have also expressed optimism about Vietnam’s 2026 growth outlook. UOB projects GDP growth of around 7.5%, while Standard Chartered forecasts 7.2%.

According to Tim Leelahaphan, senior economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered Bank, Vietnam is set to remain one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies, supported by competitive manufacturing, resilient exports, sustained FDI inflows and improving domestic demand.

Public investment may help Vietnam achieve GDP growth target: VinaCapital

A 40% increase in infrastructure investment that the Vietnamese Government is now planning would add approximately 2 percentage points to Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth - if the Government manages to hit its disbursement targets this year, according to Michael Kokalari, chief economist at VinaCapital.