In a report to the MoIT, the VFA also called on the Ministry to engage the Philippines regarding the Memorandum of Understanding on rice trade cooperation which was signed on January 30, 2024, and remains in effect until December 31, 2028.

According to VFA Chairman Do Ha Nam, the Philippines is Vietnam’s largest rice consumer, accounting for 40–45% of total annual rice exports. The import suspension threatens to disrupt pending shipments, increase inventory, and pressure cash flows for Vietnamese exporters.

Many Vietnamese firms have signed contracts for August deliveries, but delays in Philippine customs clearance have already stalled shipments. The upcoming two-month export freeze will worsen inventory buildup, lower export prices, and narrow profit margins. Reduced overseas demand could also push domestic prices down, directly affecting farmers’ incomes.

Facing increased stockpiles and falling prices, businesses are seeking low-interest credit support, loan extensions, and storage solutions to hold inventory until exports resume. In addition, the recent imposition of a 5% VAT on rice under the new tax law that was effective on July 1 has created further financial strain for exporters, with no resolution yet in sight.

Indeed, after the Philippines announced the import halt, Vietnam’s 5% broken rice export price rose by US$9 to US$391/tonne, the highest in Asia which was US$11 higher than India’s, US$22 above Pakistan’s, and US$23 over Thailand’s.

Experts note that Philippine importers may rush to buy in August before the ban takes effect, boosting short-term demand. However, with Vietnam's summer-autumn rice crop nearing its end, supply remains tight, further pushing up prices.

Vietnam surpasses Thailand to become world's second largest rice exporter

VOV.VN - Vietnam surpassed Thailand to become the world’s second largest rice exporter in the first half of 2025, behind only India, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association.