Vietnam targets US$23 billion trade surplus in 2026

The Agency of Foreign Trade (AFT) under the Ministry of Industry and Trade aims to increase total export turnover by more than 8% in 2026 compared with 2025, while maintaining a trade surplus of over US$23 billion, up 15% year on year.

The targets were outlined by Tran Thanh Hai, AFT Deputy Director, at a conference in Hanoi on January 8 reviewing the agency’s performance in 2025 and setting out tasks for 2026.

To meet these goals, the agency will continue refining the legal framework governing import-export activities and gather feedback from local authorities and relevant agencies to propose amendments, supplements or replacements for outdated circulars.

Addressing bottlenecks to production and exports, Hai said the AFT would advise on measures to promote strong and sustainable export growth. It will continue working with relevant bodies to urge Mexico to add Vietnamese steel producers to its list of eligible mills permitted to export steel to the country. At the same time, the agency will review Vietnam’s commitments related to textile and garment exports to Mexico and propose regulatory adjustments where necessary.

The AFT will also coordinate with authorities, associations and businesses to develop appropriate responses to the European Union’s regulations protecting its steel industry. In parallel, it will continue monitoring developments and consulting with the Eurasian Economic Commission on the application of safeguard threshold measures for textile and garment exports to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

Further efforts will focus on expanding export markets in coordination with the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, including negotiations to open new markets and encouraging China to sign official export protocols for agricultural products already exported through official channels but not yet covered by such agreements.

The agency will remain actively involved in negotiations on market access and rules of origin under existing and forthcoming free trade agreements (FTAs), while pursuing upgrades to signed agreements, including a fair and balanced reciprocal trade framework between Vietnam and the United States.

Nguyen Thao Hien, Deputy Head of the ministry's Department of Overseas Market Development, said the biggest challenge in 2026 would remain instability in the global trading environment, with more barriers being introduced. She stressed the need for stronger coordination to combat illegal trans-shipment and origin fraud, particularly for agricultural and food products facing heightened scrutiny in many importing markets.

While maintaining traditional markets such as the EU and the US, where many competitors have completed or are completing FTA negotiations, Hien emphasised the importance of tapping niche and emerging markets, including the Nordic region, and developing specialised products such as organic goods to build competitive advantages.

According to the 2025 import-export report, Vietnam’s merchandise trade reached a new record, with total turnover hitting US$930 billion, up 18.2% year on year. Exports rose an estimated 17%, the second-highest growth rate in the 2021–2025 period and above the assigned target. Processed and manufactured goods continued to drive growth, supporting a strong recovery in domestic industrial production.

The export structure continued to improve, with a higher share of processed products and reduced reliance on raw exports. Key items such as machinery, textiles, footwear, wood products, seafood, fruit and vegetables, and coffee rebounded strongly. New-generation FTAs delivered clear benefits, with exports rising to high-standard markets including the EU, Canada and Japan.

Vietnam recorded its tenth consecutive trade surplus, estimated at around US$20 billion, contributing to macroeconomic stability and investor confidence, though trade remains concentrated in a limited number of major markets.

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