Hidden challenges

In the first eight months of 2025, Vietnam’s total trade value reached nearly US$600 billion, up 16.3% year on year. Of this, exports stood at US$306 billion, a 14.8% increase, already surpassing the full-year target. The trade surplus of almost US$14 billion has contributed to macroeconomic stability.

Experts have described these results as impressive given the global economy’s lingering uncertainties, with trade conflicts and geopolitical tensions continuing to weigh heavily on international supply chains.

The US has reaffirmed its role as a key export market. According to Vietnam’s Trade Counsellor in the US Do Ngoc Hung, bilateral trade turnover reached US$114.5 billion in the first seven months of 2025, up 41% from a year earlier. Vietnam’s exports accounted for US$106 billion, while imports were just US$8 billion, resulting in a surplus of US$98 billion.

However, Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien stressed that behind the positive export figures are significant risks. These include persistent global uncertainties from geopolitical conflicts, strategic competition among major powers, increasingly stringent US trade policies, and the risk of supply chain disruptions. With one of the world’s most open economies, Vietnam remains highly vulnerable to external shocks. To achieve the annual export growth target of 12%, the country will need to secure at least US$150 billion in the final four months of 2025, equivalent to more than US$37.5 billion per month, a big challenge.

Solutions for sustainable export growth

Deputy Director of the Multilateral Trade Policy Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade Ngo Chung Khanh said to make the most of free trade agreements, Vietnam must set clear objectives for each market, identify priorities, and define key export products with specific growth targets. Trade offices, associations, and businesses should coordinate closely, allocate responsibilities clearly, and avoid a scattered or generic approach.

For the US, Vietnam’s largest export market, opportunities remain vast but come with challenges such as tariff barriers, increasing trade defence investigations, and stricter standards on product quality, traceability, and transparency. Vietnamese enterprises must improve competitiveness across the board, from processing technology and product design to branding.

In the Chinese market, firms should strengthen quality, ensure traceability, invest in processing, preservation, packaging, and cold storage, while stepping up promotion activities, particularly in the northern and northwestern provinces of China.

For the EU, the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement offers a strong boost, with over 90% of tariffs already eliminated. This creates opportunities to diversify markets, reduce reliance on the US, and expand Vietnam’s presence in Europe. However, risks remain due to possible third-country trade diversion, stricter food safety regulations, and extended safeguard measures on steel and alloys.

According to Trade Counsellor in Belgium and the EU Tran Ngoc Quan, Vietnamese goods will continue to benefit in the short term, but without greener production and compliance with environmental standards, long-term market presence will be difficult to sustain.

Minister Dien underscored the need for close coordination among the Government, trade offices, associations, and localities to maintain growth momentum in an uncertain global context.

In the final stretch of 2025, he said, it is essential to categorise markets and assign clear tasks: markets with negative growth must restore orders and remove barriers; average-performing markets should maintain their growth; and high-growth markets must continue acting as the “locomotive” pulling overall export value upward.

Alongside market expansion, businesses need to build resilience, participate in digital trade promotion ecosystems, diversify supply chains, adopt green technologies, and raise traceability standards. Industry associations should serve as “pillars,” providing market information, guidance, and support in branding efforts.

Vietnam’s trade value hits US$700 billion for first time

VOV.VN - For the first time in history Vietnam’s 2022 import-export value has surpassed the US$700 billion mark, up 15% year on year.