DHL’s latest report highlights a looming trade boom across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with Vietnam expected to be among the fastest-growing economies by the end of the decade.

The report also suggests that former US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are unlikely to derail global trade growth. DHL projects that Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines will be among the world’s top 30 countries in trade growth, both in percentage and volume.

Specifically, Vietnam’s trade volume is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5% between 2024 and 2029, up from 6.2% in the 2019–2024 period.

The report further estimates that between 2024 and 2029, the global trade CAGR will reach 3.1%, while ASEAN’s will stand at approximately 5%, making it the third-fastest-growing region after South and Central Asia (5.6%) and Sub-Saharan Africa (5.3%).

A key factor driving this growth is the "China+1" strategy, where businesses reduce reliance on China by diversifying production elsewhere. Vietnam is expected to be a major beneficiary of this shift, emerging as a prime destination for electronics manufacturing.

Beyond Vietnam, Indonesia is projected to expand its presence in the metals and chemicals industries, while the Philippines is poised for a trade boom, with its growth rate jumping from 0.5% in 2019–2024 to 7.4% in 2024–2029.

Notably, DHL dismisses concerns that Trump’s trade policies will hinder global trade. Instead, it points to geopolitical tensions fueling interest in "nearshoring", relocating production closer to key markets. The report notes that supply chains have already begun shifting toward Asia, particularly Southeast Asia, which is emerging as a key manufacturing hub for European and North American businesses.

While DHL’s latest forecast aligns with previous projections, it reinforces confidence in Vietnam’s long-term growth prospects. Experts believe that with its current position among the world's top 40 economies and top 20 trade nations, Vietnam’s rise into the top 30 fastest-growing trade economies is well within reach.

Vietnam among fastest-growing economies: Asia Times

VOV.VN - The Asia Times has published an article outlining how Vietnam has uniquely positioned itself to be among the fastest-growing economies over the coming decade.