Sketching 2026 economic picture

The Finance Ministry, in the first draft of the 2026 socio-economic development plan, has set GDP growth at 10%, alongside other indicators: per capita income at US$5,400-5,500, inflation around 5%, 29.5% of workers holding degrees or certificates, poverty reduced by 1-1.5%, and at least 15% of communes meeting new rural development criteria for 2026–2030.

In late May 2025, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh directed that the 2026 plan be built on a full and substantive review of the 2025 results, along with forecasts of global and domestic conditions, to ensure “double-digit growth.” The Finance Ministry’s draft shows this directive, positioning 2026 as the first year for two-digit expansion, a leap into a new era of prosperity.

The question remains whether Vietnam can reach 10% growth next year, with the achievements of 2025 expected to serve as an important springboard.

2025 viewed as the launching pad

Reporting to the Government, Finance Minister Nguyen Van Thang said the 2025 plan had “basically fulfilled” its overarching objectives, with all 15 key targets expected to be met or surpassed. GDP growth in 2025 is estimated at a minimum of 8%, meeting the goals set by the Party and National Assembly. Per capita GDP is projected at about US$5,000, moving Vietnam into the upper middle-income group, with inflation at about 4%.

“The final months of the year must see efforts to raise GDP growth to 8.3-8.5%,” Thang emphasized.

Official statistics for the past nine months of 2025 will be released in early October, but data for the eight-month period indicate that third-quarter growth likely remains strong.

Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB), in its latest report, forecast Vietnam’s GDP growth at 7.6% for Q3 and 7.2% for Q4, lifting the full-year estimate to 7.5%, up from the earlier 6.9% projection, citing robust exports and higher public investment.

Readying for acceleration

Challenges remain, however, and most international institutions remain cautious about Vietnam’s 2026 outlook. UOB maintained its 2026 forecast at 7%. The World Bank in September projected growth to slow to 6.1% in 2026 before rebounding to 6.5% in 2027. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecast 6% growth for 2026, while the International Monetary Fund put the figure at 5.6%.

These differing forecasts reflect uncertainties at home and abroad. Despite this, the Government remains determined to pursue double-digit growth, which will require decisive and breakthrough measures.

In its draft plan, the Finance Ministry has proposed 10 major tasks and solutions, including carrying out key projects under the 14th Party Congress documents, focusing on institutional and legal reforms, while sustaining macroeconomic stability, shifting to a new growth model, and investing in infrastructure, high-quality human resources, science-technology and innovation.

To achieve 10% growth in 2026 and pave the way for continued two-digit growth, the ministry emphasized that key growth drivers, such as Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang City, Hai Phong, Dong Nai and Lam Dong provinces, must themselves reach double-digit growth, creating vital momentum for the national economy.

Mariam J. Sherman, World Bank Country Director for Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, suggested boosting public investment, dealing with risks in the financial system and boosting structural reforms.

At a recent seminar, Nguyen Duc Hien, Deputy Head of the Central Economic Policy and Strategy Department, argued that Vietnam must move beyond traditional drivers such as natural resources and cheap labor, and instead harness innovation and technology.

“High growth targets are not out of reach,” said Pham Anh Tuan, Deputy Director of the Vietnam Institute of Economics, stressing the need to prioritize private investment and attract high-tech capital tied to digital and green transitions.

Solutions for socio-economic development alongside commercial banks under scrutiny

VOV.VN - Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired a meeting on September 21 between cabinet members and leaders of 13 joint stock commercial banks as part of efforts to seek measures aimed at boosting national socio-economic development.