UOB: Vietnam’s economy sustains growth momentum in 2026
VOV.VN - UOB economist Suan Teck Kin has said Vietnam’s economy is sustaining its growth momentum into the third quarter, with manufacturing, consumption and exports continuing to perform well and supporting an 8.5% growth forecast for 2026.
The assessment was made by Suan Teck Kin, Head of Research and Executive Director of Global Economics and Markets Research at Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB), at the “Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2026” event held in Ho Chi Minh City on September 17, amid economic data showing continued growth momentum.
According to Suan Teck Kin, Vietnam’s GDP grew 8.39% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, bringing growth in the first half to 8.18%. The result was significantly higher than UOB’s previous forecast of 7%.
He said the stronger-than-expected performance provided a basis for UOB to put its 2026 growth forecast at 8.5%, implying growth of around 8.8% in the second half of the year.
Manufacturing and exports remain key growth drivers
Recent data show that growth momentum has continued into the third quarter rather than being concentrated in the first half of the year.
In July, industrial production and retail sales both rose 14.5% year on year. The manufacturing PMI increased from 51.8 in June to 52.9, its highest level since February. New export orders also grew at their fastest pace since July 2024.
In the first seven months of the year, exports rose 21.7% to US$319.5 billion. Exports of electronics, computers and components exceeded US$85 billion, highlighting the growing role of Vietnam in production chains linked to global investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Alongside manufacturing and exports, UOB sees improving domestic demand, investment flows into manufacturing and technology, and major infrastructure projects under way as factors that could provide further support for growth in the coming months. Judging from the improvements, the bank’s 2026 growth forecast stands at 8.5%.
Trade balance and investment disbursement warrant attention
Alongside the positive growth outlook, UOB has identified the trade balance as an issue to watch.
In the first seven months of the year, imports rose 34.8% to US$340.1 billion, turning the trade balance from a surplus of US$10.4 billion in the same period last year to a deficit of US$20.5 billion.
Energy was among the factors contributing significantly to the increase. Imports of refined fuels rose 67.6% in value, despite a 6% increase in volume. Imports of machinery and equipment for infrastructure investment also contributed to the sharp rise in total imports.
UOB also pointed to policy implementation, particularly the pace of investment disbursement, as an area requiring further attention. After seven months, disbursement had reached 39% of the total investment plan worth VND1.08 quadrillion.
Looking further ahead, UOB expected Vietnam’s demand for capital to remain substantial as the country invests in infrastructure, manufacturing, technology, education and healthcare.
The bank therefore saw a need to diversify long-term funding sources, with greater participation from foreign direct investment, the stock market, the bond market and institutional investors.
Overall, the economy is maintaining its growth momentum, supported by manufacturing, exports, consumption and investment. At the same time, the trade balance, investment disbursement and mobilisation of long-term capital would be among the factors to monitor as Vietnam seeks to sustain growth in the remainder of the year.
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