The report outlined that Vietnam’s real GDP surged by 8.23% year-on-year in 3Q25, supported by strong exports performance and production despite US tariff.

This is a further extension of the 8.19% pace in 2Q25 (revised higher from earlier estimate of 7.96%), and well ahead of Bloomberg projection of 7.2% and the UOB’s forecast of 7.6%. In the first nine months of 2025, Vietnam’s economy expanded 7.85% year-on-year.

Vietnam’s outsized performance in the Jan-Sep period was largely driven by exports which surged 16% year-on-year with exports to the US registering a rise of 27.7%, amid a backdrop of tariff rates being imposed. Manufacturing production saw broad-based increase in the same period, increasing 10.8% year-on-year in Jan-Sep, a faster pace compared to the 9.4% rise in the same period of 2024.

Vietnam’s economic performance so far in 2025 has been much stronger than expected, despite US tariff threats. With an expansion of 7.85% year-on-year achieved in 1Q-3Q 2025, outlook remains positive for 2025.

With a high base in 4Q 2024, experts anticipate the final quarter would be a challenge given a backdrop of tariffs and trade frictions. As such, they are keeping their 4Q25 growth projection of 7.2% year-on-year, which implies an upward adjustment to our full-year growth forecast of 7.7% from the previous projection of 7.5%. It would be even more daunting to achieve the official 8.3-8.5% growth projection, which would require 4Q25 expansion of 9.7-10.5% year-on-year.

Meanwhile, Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) expanded for the third month in September, above 50, reversing three months of sub-50 readings prior to that. This suggests a stabilized outlook ahead and is further reaffirmed by the quickened pace of realized foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, which increased 8.5% year-on-year to US$18.8 billion in the first nine months of the year. If the momentum continues into 4Q25, this could mean that full year inflows may match the record inflows of USD25.4 billion achieved in 2024.

Suan Teck Kin, Head of Research and Executive Director, Global Economics and Markets Research, at UOB, pointed out that the outlook through the end of 2025 remains positive, driven by strong performance over the first three quarters of the year, particularly in the export sector.

Currently, Vietnam is among the fastest-growing economies in ASEAN, with a projected growth rate of over 7%, outpacing Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.6%-5.3%), Singapore (3.52%), and Thailand (2%-3%). The manufacturing sector has been a key differentiator and main growth driver, generating higher added value compared to resource-based industries such as agriculture or mining, thereby reinforcing Vietnam’s solid position in the region.

UOB lifts Vietnam's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 7.5%

Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) has boosted its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.5% from 6.9%, pointing to the economy’s resilience and dynamism despite tariff risks and uncertainties.