The outlook was shared at VASEP’s 7th conference for the 2025–2030 term, held on June 12 in Ho Chi Minh City.

Despite huge challenges over the past five years, Vietnam’s seafood export earnings hit a record high of US$11 billion in 2022 before dropping to US$9 billion in 2023 and US$10 billion in 2024. By 2030, the industry aims to become modern, sustainable, and globally competitive, with a target export turnover of US$14–16 billion.

However, current US reciprocal duties are posing one of the industry’s most serious challenges, driving up costs and forcing Vietnamese firms to strengthen trade defense measures and improve supply chain transparency.

According to VASEP, the US currently accounts for 20% of Vietnam’s total seafood export turnover, making it a critical market. In the most optimistic scenario, if the US lifts reciprocal tariffs after July 9, Vietnam’s seafood exports are expected to hold steady at US$10 billion, matching the 2024 level.

If the tariffs are kept at 10%, however, export earnings may fall to US$9.5 billion as higher costs and prices erode the competitiveness of Vietnamese products in the US market. In this case, profit margins for exporters would also shrink due to added expenses in production and traceability.

In the worst-case scenario, if tariffs exceed 10%, export value could drop to below US$9 billion. This could effectively shut Vietnamese shrimp and fish out of the US market, forcing businesses to pivot more aggressively toward alternative markets such as Japan, the EU, and ASEAN. Still, VASEP warned that the ability to offset such losses remains limited, given the ongoing slump in global consumer demand.

How will Vietnam respond to United States’ reciprocal tariff imposition?

VOV.VN - Vietnam is implementing multiple synchronized measures to respond to the United States’ 46% reciprocal tariff, aiming to cushion its negative impact on exports and the economy in general.