The VND has remained in line with broader trends in emerging market Asian currencies over the past three years, being influenced by a strong US$ environment. While market volatility has stayed low, external factors such as evolving trade dynamics and global economic conditions may continue to shape currency movements.

When considering these factors, Tim Leelahaphan, senior economist for Thailand and Vietnam of Standard Chartered Bank, shared that, “Standard Chartered has adjusted our US$-VND exchange rate forecasts, raising our mid-year projection to 26,000 (previously 25,450) and our end-2025 projection to 25,700 (previously 25,000).”

 “We stay cautious on the near-term economic outlook and await more details on US trade policies, given Vietnam’s large trade surplus with the US. In response, Vietnam has indicated its willingness to import more US agricultural products, among other items,” he added.

The Vietnamese Government has raised its annual growth target to at least 8%, (from 6.5% to 7%,) with a higher inflation expectation of between 4.5% and 5.0% creating room for monetary policy flexibility.

The stronger growth outlook could help to sustain low interest rates over the short term. However, Standard Chartered expects the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in the second quarter of the year in response to rising inflation.

Standard Chartered forecasts Vietnamese GDP growth at 6.7% next year

VOV.VN - Standard Chartered highlighted Vietnam’s positive but cautious outlook ahead in 2025, forecasting GDP growth of 6.7% next year, with growth easing from 7.5% on-year in the first half to 6.1% in the second half, according to the bank’s latest macro-economic updates for Vietnam.