Standard Chartered projects Vietnam growth to peak at 11% in 2027

The Bank expects growth to remain in double digits in early 2027, supporting household income and prospects for the consumer sector. Disbursed FDI rose 12% year-to-date in the first nine months of 2026, according to the figures cited in its assessment.

“We continue to see a commitment to strong growth in 2027, supporting prospects for domestic consumption and investment,” Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist, Vietnam and Thailand, Standard Chartered, said.

He added that rebuilding foreign exchange reserves could strengthen Vietnam’s external position and increase domestic liquidity, helping support the domestic interest rate market and stabilise funding costs.

Standard Chartered has raised its headline inflation forecasts to 4.7% for 2026 from 4.4%, and to 3.9% for 2027 from 3.3%. Inflation is forecast at 5.2% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 4.6% in the first quarter of 2027, before easing to 3.3% in the second quarter of 2027.

This projected moderation would give the State Bank of Vietnam room to maintain a relatively accommodative monetary policy in the near term.

The bank has lowered its 2028 inflation forecast to 3.7%, from 5.5%, anticipating that gradual monetary tightening will help contain price pressures.

Standard Chartered expects the refinancing rate to rise by 25 basis points to 4.75% in the fourth quarter of 2027, followed by a further 25-basis-point increase to 5.00% in the fourth quarter of 2028.

The projected increases would mark a gradual normalisation of monetary policy. The bank expects growth to remain a priority well into 2027, with policymakers placing greater emphasis on stability in 2028.

“While stability concerns do not appear to require an urgent response, growth ambitions are expected to be gradually balanced with a greater focus on stability,” Leelahaphan noted.

Vietnam’s foreign exchange reserves stand at approximately US$83 billion, according to the report.

Standard Chartered also highlighted uncertainty over whether electronics exports will generate a sufficient surplus to offset imports of production inputs. However, the bank noted that these imports support the production of electronic goods, which account for around 30% of Vietnam’s total exports.

The outlook therefore points to continued strong growth in the near term, supported by domestic demand, investment and policy measures, alongside a gradual shift towards greater macroeconomic stability as inflation and financing conditions evolve.

Standard Chartered raises 2026 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 9.5%

VOV.VN - Standard Chartered has lifted its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 9.5%, citing strong economic momentum and a supportive policy environment, according to its latest assessment report.