With a total turnover of US$680.66 billion, the Ministry of Industry and Trade expects the figure to surpass US$900 billion for the year, with a trade surplus of around US$30 billion. While favorable conditions in the final quarter support achieving this target, caution remains essential. The long‑term challenge is to ensure trade turnover becomes a firm pillar of sustainable growth.

Trade turnover has continued to serve as a core driver of growth, one of the three pillars sustaining the economy over the past nine months, with an approximate increase of 16% compared to the same period last year. Export turnover of more than US$348.74 billion reflects both strong market dynamics and productive capacity. A trade surplus valued at US$16.8 billion has considerably contributed to stabilizing the trade balance and macroeconomic stability.

Entering the final quarter, Vietnam’s trade outlook remains positive. Many manufacturers in electronics, computing, textiles, garments, and footwear have reported substantial orders, driven by year‑end demand and festive seasons.

In July 2025, Vietnam recorded its highest monthly export turnover ever, surpassing US$42 billion, and maintained growth into August. Although September’s export figures dipped slightly by 1.7% from August, strong domestic production suggests 2025 could set a new record, with annual exports exceeding US$450 billion and a trade surplus of more than US$20 billion.

Export figures have made a notable contribution to the nation’s economic growth. Yet alongside these ‘billion‑dollar’ results, official statistics require careful analysis to identify suitable measures that ensure international trade remains proactive and sustainable.

Notably, of the US$348.74 billion in exports over the past nine months, domestic enterprises accounted for just a 2% growth, contributing over US$85.4 billion, or about 24.5% of total export turnover. The remainder came from the foreign‑invested sector (FDI), which made up 75.5% of the country’s total exports and soared by 21.4% year on year.

Warnings have been raised that if Vietnamese firms continue to face difficulties integrating into the production and supply chains of FDI enterprises, this gap is likely to widen further in the coming period.

Alongside global uncertainties, such as sudden changes in tariffs and trade regulations, for instance, the US Presidential order adjusting reciprocal duties on 69 economies including a 20% tariff on Vietnam, the nation must enhance domestic input production, leverage the 17 active free trade agreements (FTAs), and accelerate negotiations on new FTAs. This is essential both to consolidate traditional markets and open new avenues for trade and investment, and to sustain high growth in the long term.

Vietnam’s export‑oriented industrial base depends heavily on the global market, with production often far exceeding domestic demand. For many sectors such as garments and textiles, footwear, and electronics, up to 90% of output is destined for export markets. To ensure sustainable economic growth, exports must therefore become a stable and reliable pillar of the national economy.

Vietnam’s trade turnover surpasses US$40 billion in first half of August

Vietnam’s trade activities remained vibrant in the first half of August 2025, with total import-export turnover exceeding US$40.36 billion, according to preliminary data released by the Department of Customs under the Ministry of Finance.