Revise GDP goal despite Q3 bump: experts
Economic growth this year would climb up to 6% on the back of recovery signs shown in the third quarter, falling short of the 6.7% target set by the Government.
It says the manufacturing and processing sectors were key drivers of economic recovery seen in the third quarter, posting growth rates of 6.4% and 11.22% respectively in the third quarter and first nine months of the year.
“To reach this target, economic growth in the final quarter should show a year-on-year increase of 8.3%.
“However, the Government should focus more on the quality of economic development, and revise the target to 6.3% or 6.5%,” Thanh told the conference.
He said insistence on high economic growth might inflame macroeconomic instabilities and inflict “much heavier costs.”
Other experts at the conference also said that Vietnam should lower its economic growth target to avoid macro-economic instability. Inflation would be unavoidable in the coming months, they noted, with healthcare costs set to rise in 16 cities and provinces.
Moreover, in the world market, energy prices had recovered while food prices were still unknown. These factors have exerted pressure on Vietnamese prices, pushing inflation to the 5% target.
The VEPR recommended caution in policy making, especially in monetary and credit policies.
“In the coming time, the Government should apply a master plan for trimming the administrative apparatus as well as regular spending by State agencies,” Thanh said.
Alongside efforts to improve the current business environment, commercial banks should reduce lending rates to motivate businesses, facilitating stable economic growth, he added.